December 5, 2025
Recently, I’ve been increasingly aware of the power of AI. In fact, judging from the stock performance of companies like Nvidia and Google and the valuation of OpenAI, this wave of AI is a real technological revolution. But to be honest, I’m already late to the game—those who reacted quickly have long since made heavy bets on AI companies, and many AI-based derivative products have emerged, such as Doubao, AI video editing tools, and so on. The strength of Gemini 3.0 this time lies in the fact that any individual can use AI to accomplish the workload of a whole team; in othe

December 4, 2025
In the blink of an eye, Ethereum has broken through 3,200 again. The pace of this rally is pretty decent. Bitcoin continues to hold at 93,000 USD, and BNB has also climbed above 900 USD. The main reason for this surge is still the strong performance of the US stock market. Looking at the Nasdaq, there have been several consecutive daily rallies. Although there hasn't been a new high yet, last month's downturn has already been reversed. In other words, after this correction, the US stock market is likely to continue hitting new highs and follow the interest rate cut cycle for a

December 3, 2025
I saw in the news that the market price of Moutai liquor has already dropped below the distributor channel price of 1,499. The once unattainable 53-degree Feitian, under the double pressure of consumption downgrade and e-commerce, has fallen from its pedestal. Just last year, Moutai's market value became the leader of the A-shares, and at that time, people would compare "Eastern Moutai" with "Western Nvidia". Now, Nvidia still holds the top spot on the Nasdaq, and AI development remains in full swing. Perhaps choosing Moutai doesn't mean you've lost, but as AI continues to d

December 2, 2025
After a short-term decline, the market has temporarily stabilized. Currently, it seems that this wave of decline is still caused by negative news. Given this, I believe there is no need to be pessimistic about the subsequent market. The previous decline was due to the actual outflow of ETF funds, which is fundamentally different. Of course, the current rebound price has not yet returned to the level before the decline, so the short-term market is still primarily characterized by fluctuations.
Recently, one thing worth noting is the surge in silver prices. To be honest, the sig

December 1, 2025
The market has dropped again, giving a stern warning for December's trend. In fact, the overall judgment on the upcoming market is pessimistic; it is unlikely that a significant surge will occur again before the end of January. It has been reiterated that there are risks associated with cryptocurrency-related financial services, mainly because many cryptocurrency promotions have recently entered common social platforms, and many people are starting to fall victim to scams.
From this perspective, it is necessary to tighten regulation. To be honest, most people have no aware

November 29, 2025
Happy weekend! Compared to the previous few weekends, the market has been much better these two days, although it hasn't continued to surge. However, for a rebound market, being able to consolidate is a good sign, which helps to sustain the rebound trend. Currently, Bitcoin still needs to test the support at 90,000, while Ethereum is facing the test of 3,000 points. In fact, I believe that in the upcoming volatile market, it is highly likely that it will break down, and the key is whether the previous low of 80,000 can be defended. Even if we go through a second or even t

November 28, 2025
This week, the overall market trend is relatively stable. Even if there is no further increase in the next few days, Bitcoin can maintain around 90,000, and Ethereum barely holds above 3,000, which is acceptable. Currently, what is worth looking forward to is the implementation of interest rate cuts, as it will be a real benefit for the current monetary environment, unlike what everyone understands as good news turning into bad news.
Although I judge that the market will not be very good in the next one or two months, the low point from last week may become an important suppo

November 27, 2025
The market is gradually stabilizing, and this rebound is not the type that rushes up; it is a steady and gradual climb. As a result, the probability of further declines in the near term will become very small. Therefore, currently stabilizing around 90,000 is a very good signal. A couple of days ago, I took a 10% position to buy the dip, mainly considering that the sentiment was severely oversold, combined with the recent stabilization and rebound of the U.S. stock market, and last week's prices increasingly resembled the recent lows.
Another relatively good signal is tha

November 26, 2025
Looking at the current market situation, there is no intention to directly retest the bottom, and the recovery of the US stock market has also given more confidence to the upcoming trend of the market. Some people mentioned yesterday that the recent recovery of the market is directly benefiting from the expectation of an interest rate cut in December. The latest monetary policy meeting will be held on the 9th to 10th of next month, and the probability of a 25bp rate cut is currently around 80%. Therefore, whether it's the US stock market, gold, or the cryptocurrency marke

November 25, 2025
The market has once again experienced a significant rebound, especially Ethereum, which led the way with the largest gains, reaching a high price close to $3,000. Although looking at the daily chart, this price movement still appears quite unattractive, the performance over the past few days is still commendable given the recent weakness, particularly considering today is already Tuesday, which means institutional sell-offs may have come to an end.
Additionally, I saw an analysis today regarding large ETF institutions like BlackRock suddenly transferring large amounts of co

November 24, 2025
The test during Monday daytime has been temporarily withstood. Currently, the overall market has rebounded slightly compared to yesterday, especially with Bitcoin and Ethereum not continuing to break lower. For now, the probability of a sudden plunge tonight is relatively small. Judging from the results, the buying over the weekend may have allowed some to get chips at a stage bottom price. Of course, prices are still down significantly compared to before, so a slight rebound is nothing to be happy about.
Besides the price stabilizing, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has recently

Let’s briefly talk about today. The market saw a rare rebound. Although the strength of the rebound isn’t significant and it’s not enough to reverse the trend, it still helps to stop the recent sharp decline and boost market confidence. In fact, the price movement hasn’t fully found a bottom yet, so every rebound is important. Yesterday’s prices—$80,000 for Bitcoin and $2,600 for Ethereum—do have a certain probability of becoming bottom support. Of course, the real test will come tomorrow, especially when the US stock market opens in the evening.

November 22, 2025
The market has temporarily stabilized. To be honest, the recent decline has been too fast. Since Bitcoin broke the previous all-time high of $70,000, it has maintained a high-level consolidation with low volatility. This is the first time we’ve seen such a huge bearish candlestick. As for Ethereum and other major altcoins, there’s a sense of numbness from the drop. At this point, I can only be glad that I gradually reduced some positions when prices were high, keeping 40-50% of my funds. Honestly, the market hasn’t truly stabilized yet, and the probability of $80,000 holdin

November 21, 2025
The market is stunned by the decline. From yesterday to today, Ethereum has dropped another 10 points, while Bitcoin has completely broken below the 90,000 support level, dropping to a low of 82,500. Although this price movement is within expectations, a month ago, it would have been unthinkable. However, I also mentioned yesterday that the speed of the market’s decline would slow down. The US stock market plummeted last night but did not drag the crypto market down much; instead, the decline today suggests that there are still players unloading in the crypto space.
The main

November 20, 2025
The market is still at a new low. From yesterday's situation, Bitcoin almost fell below the technical support of 90,000. In fact, from the overall trend, it is now heading towards a bear market. The only hope is that it can hold at the 90,000 position and form a rebound. If there is really a rebound, it would actually be a good opportunity for most people to reduce their holdings. Of course, I mentioned reducing holdings at high points a few days ago when Ethereum broke through 3,500.
On a macro level, the current funding situation is actually not as pessimistic and despe

November 19, 2025
Looking at the market trends and related data over the past couple of days, especially the funding rates, many have already turned negative. From this perspective, the recent oversold positions are quite severe. Of course, given such poor price performance, we can only hope for a decent short-term rebound, but from the funding rates, this price is not the bottom, and there isn't much room for further decline. Another point is that the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to single digits. Although the accuracy of this data has significantly decreased in this round of the bull

November 18, 2025
Ethereum has officially fallen below 3000, and Bitcoin is just a slight decline away from the support level of 90,000. To be honest, this drop is a bit fast for me to digest; it feels like just the other day I was excited about Ethereum about to break through 5000. Bitcoin's highest price was 126,000, and at this level, the decline has already exceeded 30%, which is also a key defensive level for a technical bear market. If it breaks down effectively, then the bear market will be confirmed. Of course, some may feel that even if we judge that a bear market has formed now,

November 17, 2025
The market attempted to push down again, with Ethereum hitting a low of 3004 USD, almost falling below 3000, which is another significant round number. Currently, there seems to be some support. Subsequently, the market began to rebound, and Ethereum moved up to 3200 USD, while Bitcoin returned to 95000. However, it must be noted that the market still hasn't broken free from the bottom range. If there isn't a decent rebound soon, it will continue to fall further.
Generally speaking, in the process of a decline, support points must be determined not only by relying on

November 16, 2025
Happy weekend. Currently, the market has stabilized in the short term, but the strength of this rebound is not very reassuring. It is worth mentioning that weekends generally have lower liquidity, so it is quite rare for the market to remain stable. However, this round of selling is related to the decline of the US stock market. Considering that the rebound over the past two days has been weak, the real test will have to wait until the US stock market opens on Monday.
If we only consider from an emotional perspective, the sharp decline last week has already become a phase bot