November 26, 2025

Looking at the current market situation, there is no intention to directly retest the bottom, and the recovery of the US stock market has also given more confidence to the upcoming trend of the market. Some people mentioned yesterday that the recent recovery of the market is directly benefiting from the expectation of an interest rate cut in December. The latest monetary policy meeting will be held on the 9th to 10th of next month, and the probability of a 25bp rate cut is currently around 80%. Therefore, whether it's the US stock market, gold, or the cryptocurrency market, prices have rebounded to varying degrees.
If you look at the prices of US stocks and gold, you will actually find that both are in a high-level consolidation phase, and there has not been a significant decline; instead, the cryptocurrency market has led the global assets in a downturn this time. However, on the flip side, since other assets are not bearish and continue to follow the rhythm, this downturn in the cryptocurrency market might be a good opportunity? If there is indeed a big market movement later, one can jump higher after a deep squat. Moreover, this wave has gone through the crash of 1011 and subsequent significant declines, including the explosion of some stablecoin projects, which indicates that the effect of deleveraging is significant.
Of course, the crypto space has its inherent cycles. According to the four-year cycle perspective, next year will be a bear market, which contradicts the rhythm of the interest rate cut cycle. In fact, I am more of a believer in the four-year cycle. Looking back, the market in October-November was also a high point, and objectively speaking, it is unlikely to have a very violent rally in the next 1-2 months. However, for crypto investments, there is one advantage: "If it doesn't work out, we can always hold for another four years!"
For high-quality assets, the performance of BTC in this bull market can be described as perfect, but for