November 24, 2025

The test during Monday daytime has been temporarily withstood. Currently, the overall market has rebounded slightly compared to yesterday, especially with Bitcoin and Ethereum not continuing to break lower. For now, the probability of a sudden plunge tonight is relatively small. Judging from the results, the buying over the weekend may have allowed some to get chips at a stage bottom price. Of course, prices are still down significantly compared to before, so a slight rebound is nothing to be happy about.

Besides the price stabilizing, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has recently fallen back into the normal range; previously, it even exceeded 1.001. If this indicator is effective, then this round of decline may be coming to an end. Why does a rise in the USDC rate lead to a market decline? Mainly because USDC is the preferred stablecoin for cashing out and selling pressure, especially among compliant institutions like BlackRock. Therefore, the normalization of the rate at least means that recent large redemptions have already been completed.

Another basis for my view that the market has reached a near-term bottom is that, before the weekend drop, sentiment had already hit extremely low levels. As I mentioned then, price bottoms often lag behind sentiment bottoms. So, from a sentiment perspective, the market's pessimism has actually faded, and the early reversal in sentiment will also provide a counter-support to the market. People are not as panicked now and are instead willing to buy.

Of course, in terms of the big picture, the market may only be stabilizing or seeing a short-term rebound at best; a real rally is out of the question. Judging by the consolidation period, this will likely last until the end of December at least. However, in terms of price, there is little chance of a sharp further decline in the near future. A couple of days ago I started to implement