日本債券市場剛剛打破了全球的既定假設

Japan’s bond market just delivered an uncomfortable signal for global markets, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations

The warning from deVere Group’s chief executive Nigel Green comes as demand at Thursday’s 30-year Japanese government bond auction surged to its strongest level since 2019, even as yields climbed to multi-decade highs.

“Investors didn’t step back. They leaned in,” he explains

“Higher yields aren’t driving investors away from Japan. They’re pulling money in. When long-term bonds start to offer serious income again, investors pay attention.”

Japan’s 30-year yield has risen above 3.4%, reaching around 3.44–3.45%, the highest level since the bond was introduced in 1999. The 10-year yield has climbed close to 1.9%, the highest since 2007.

“In previous cycles, moves of that size would have rattled markets. Instead, demand strengthened.”

The implications reach far beyond Japan

“For years, Japan quietly exported capital to the rest of the world,” explains the deVere CEO.

“With interest rates pinned close to zero, investors borrowed cheaply in yen and sent that money into US bonds, European credit, equities and emerging markets.”

This so-called yen carry trade has been a major pillar of global flows for much of the past two decades. But this pattern is now under pressure.

Markets have sharply repriced expectations for tighter policy from the Bank of Japan following remarks from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggesting rates could rise while overall financial conditions would remain accommodative even after a hike.

“Investors are now assigning roughly 70–80% odds to a December move, and they see a real chance of further tightening into early 2026,” notes Nigel Green.

“This sets Japan apart,” he says. “The US has already started to cut, and markets are looking for more reductions over the next year, while rate cut debates are resurfacing in Europe. But Japan is edging the other way.”

He continues: “Global markets have grown comfortable relying on cheap yen as a source of funding.

“If borrowing costs rise in Japan at the same time returns elsewhere start easing, capital doesn’t drift, it shifts.”

That shift affects more than just Japan. Yen-funded carry trades become less attractive. Overseas bond allocations lose some of their appeal. Money that spent years flowing outward begins looking for reasons to come back.

“The adjustment doesn’t have to be aggressive to be disruptive,” adds Nigel Green.

“Due to Japan’s role in global finance, even modest policy changes can ripple through currencies, bonds and risk assets.”

The strength of the auction itself is also telling. “This was a valuation response,” he says. “Buyers stepped in because they felt that yields finally reflected risk properly.”

Japan’s approach to managing its debt adds to that sense of control.

Earlier this year the Ministry of Finance twice cut issuance of super-long bonds, and more recently it has opted to fund Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s latest economic package, mainly by boosting issuance of two- and five-year notes and roughly ¥6–6.3 trillion of Treasury bills, rather than adding further pressure at the very long end.

For investors globally, the takeaway is becoming harder to ignore.

“The assumption that Japan will always sit on the sidelines with near-zero rates no longer holds.

“Capital flows are shifting, long-standing expectations are being tested, and portfolios built around permanently cheap yen now face a very different world,” concludes the deVere Group CEO.

About deVere Group

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.