Smileycapital

safest positions until de-escalation are oil longs and dollar longs/holdings
any risk asset exposure should be hedged
I keep repeating this war runs deeper than most people think, by the time they understand, it will be too late

literally the only real usecase i see in bitcoin and ethereum is that they are the most sensitive assets when it comes to pricing in future liquidity, macro landscape and geopolitics
very easily used as a barometer for risk appetite as they move way sooner than everything else
eg. Iran war was priced in weeks before the actual event

Hyperliquid is the only coin I'm comfortable holding right now

pembaruan positioning/pemikiran;
orang-orang bertanya kepada saya apakah saya bullish risk karena longs AI saya;
TIDAK.
saya menjual crypto spot hari ini yang saya bicarakan ~sebulan yang lalu untuk +25% [HYPE, MORPHO, SKY]
saya ~90% flat, seperti yang telah saya katakan secara publik sejak Agustus
positioning perp saya condong SANGAT bearish risk, mengekspresikannya sebagian besar melalui CL longs, DXY longs [currency pairs] dan semoga segera saya dapat short BTC & ETH secara langsung juga
longs yang lebih kecil di sektor AI hanya merupakan hedge yang tidak seimbang terhadap posisi utama - me

problem with this war is that USA is going to be stuck with oil trading at extreme premium
Trump assuring that this is somehow positive for them is a total LARP
Iran knows it and will press the wound
either temporary peace pact [keyword temporary] or they sending ground troops

regularly going to sleep at 10-11pm is a literal hack in a caffeine fueled sleep deprived society that thinks running on 5h of low quality sleep is somehow more productive