To everyone who said prediction markets are just sports, here’s the CEO of a $110b company:\n\n1. Weather and temperature contracts are the most frequently traded\n2. Utilities will soon hedge electricity and natural gas contracts using these markets\n\nPrediction markets are already institutional\n\nYou’re just not paying close enough attention
WSJ and NYT will give you emotional opinion pieces on Greenland. Prediction markets will give you unbiased odds. 1. US takes control of a part of Greenland by 2029 = 42% 2. Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 = 20% 3. Greenland acquired for $600b to $899b = 17% 4. Trump invades Greenland in 2026 = 11%
Pretty cool to see NYSE doubling down on tokenization. 1. 24x7 trading of US stocks and ETFs 2. Fractional shares 3. Instant on-chain settlement 4. Stablecoin-based funding How many more years before NYSE perps?
These Iran markets have: • Date ladders • Conditional chains • Cross-event dependencies Exactly the kind of structure where advanced order types and cross-market routing matter. Prediction markets are becoming a quant playground.
everyone on the timeline > omg AI is insane, we’re 4x more productive now, SWE is dead same people in private forums and dms > hiring a react dev, will pay $20k commission if he joins
Weak men react emotionally to Venezuela and Iran Strong men analyze the chess board unemotionally by studying history Spengler and Durant are probably the most useful sources to understand this period of the American empire