Jamesvanst

Silver is less than 5% away from entering a "bear market".
This is why terms like “bear market” and “recession” are nonsense.
The world has evolved, but the majority of investors are still primitive in how they think about risk.

26k+ BTC increase in OI over the past 24 hours
Which is now down 8k BTC from the highs.

Bitcoin has now broken out of the 3-month downtrend line on the daily.
Time to retest the channel when the US opens.

Bitcoin bottomed in November a month before MSTR (December) in the 2022 bear market.
So far, Bitcoin has bottomed in November a month earlier than MSTR (December) in the 2025 bear market.
History repeating?

All metals rallied after December 10, when the Fed decided to start QE.
So yes, the metals are saying it’s QE.

The last 3 times Bitcoin was $87K, this is the lowest open interest has been. Speculation at its lowest.
November 2024: 560k BTC
April 2025: 555k BTC
December 2025: 518k BTC

It seems we are entering a period combining ISM expansion with metals topping and correcting.
This will drive huge rotation into growth and Bitcoin.

More tin foil hat theory.
Morgan Stanley were among the main beneficiaries of the bitcoin correction through the structure of the IBIT note.
MS collects structuring and distribution fees at issuance. As prices fell, the probability of early autocall declined, extending the life of the note and allowing MS to earn additional carry and hedging related income.
The important part is: once IBIT fell more than roughly 25% and breached the downside barrier, losses were transferred to note holders.
From that point on, investors absorbed losses one for one as prices continued to fall. Further drawdow

If Bitcoin were doing what silver is currently doing, I would be 100% confident in a 70% drawdown.

The best investments over the past 2 decades have been non-cash flowing assets.

sell btc buy gold

The IBIT gap closed immediately as the market opened.
New Bitcoin futures toys for Wall Street.

History suggests that once silver experiences a blow-off top, at least a 50% correction follows (1980 and 2011).
Unless this time is different? New world order?
This metals rally like all rally's is momentum-driven, which accelerated the day risk assets put in its bottom.
At some point the money flows back. The most irrational times are at the top.

If BTC holds or grinds higher into tomorrow's expiry, $88k, $89k, more calls expire ITM.
This reduces dealer short-gamma hedging, essentially the cap on upside eases into expiry.

Feels weird not staring at charts