AxelAdlerJr

Weekly ML Snapshot #002
Current Market Regime Score = -3.0 (🟠 Elevated Risk). Elevated Risk indicates an unfavorable environment: more frequent corrections, chop, and false impulses.

Since October last year, 64,100 BTC have been withdrawn from U.S. spot ETFs. At the same time, the $100K level remains a breakeven zone for large players. Holding a losing position throughout an entire bear cycle is economically irrational - Grayscale proved this in the previous cycle.
So what narrative actually justifies buying at $100K right now?
The full on-chain breakdown is available in this Sunday’s Bitcoin Deep Research, together with the latest Adler Strategy update. 👇

After BTC recovered from $80K to $90K, UTxO Loss Supply declined from 7.5M to 6.1M BTC.
It is important to understand: this does not mean new capital entered the market and bought the bottom. The decline in Loss Supply here is a mark-to-market effect, not the result of on-chain activity. Each UTxO has a creation price.
When the market price rises above that level, the UTxO is automatically reclassified from Loss to Profit - without a single on-chain transaction.
In other words, ~1.4M BTC simply moved out of loss on paper due to the price increase.

New whales have an entry price around $99K. If price reaches that level, they are likely to dump the market to exit at breakeven. Reminder: these are whales, not retail.

Since the start of the ETF era, drawdowns have been noticeably shallower.

At the $79K level, things will get heated - a real stress test for diamond hands.

Bitcoin Correction −33% vs −70% Historical: Early Bear Stage.
This brief examines the depth of the current correction in the context of historical bear market drawdowns and evaluates price position relative to the CVDD model.
☕️Adler AM 👇

On-Chain Fundamentals for Humans | Part 3
SOPR: Profit/Loss as a Regime Switch
👇

Market Attempts Recovery, But Structure Remains Bearish
☕️Adler AM 👇

Since January 2023, total on-chain BTC transfer volume has been steadily declining.
Even as prices rise, network activity has not recovered. Essentially, the current move is driven by FOMO, fueled by political support for Bitcoin in the U.S. the launch of ETFs, purchases by corporate treasuries and a strengthened positive narrative in the media from major KOLs.
People will continue to hold simply because they are waiting for higher prices at which they will feel compelled to sell.
HODL ✊

Regime: RISK-ON 🟢
Mode: Tailwind
Risk Meter: [██████────] 6/10
Overall U.S. market regime remains RISK-ON at 6/10, but this morning’s sentiment is negative.
If in 2026 this framework is unclear to you, start here.

Bitcoin is rising on spot demand, without leverage. Price is outpacing open interest - as long as traders stay out of leverage, the risk of a correction remains limited.
☕️Morning Brief #78 👇

Complete User Guide to Adler Insight Light 👇

On-Chain Pressure Oscillator at 46 - accumulation zone. But here's the catch, it's not demand holding this market up. It's the absence of sellers.
☕️Morning Brief #77 👇

BlackRock has released a new report. Its key message is that the world and financial markets are undergoing a transformation, with AI identified as the central driver reshaping the investment landscape.

Remarkably, Asia and Europe are reacting positively to geopolitical risks. The week begins in a high-confidence risk-on regime: the composite index is well above the threshold, volatility remains normal, and the signal appears stable rather than random.

Good news for Bitcoin at the start of the week. Bitcoin Shifts to Risk-On Mode.
☕️Morning Brief #76 👇

🚨 Monday will open with elevated geopolitical risk - US intervention in Venezuela may hit risk assets at market open. In the new issue, we break down why Bitcoin remains in a fragile regime and which derivatives signal this week changed the market's sensitivity to negative events.

Today we are launching Adler Insight Light a one-page weekly brief built on our proprietary models. It aggregates more than 50 input parameters, on-chain metrics and market data and uses machine learning-based forecasting.

Adler AM ☕️
Two sell-pressure metrics just synchronized into negative territory for the first time since the $88K consolidation began.
The question: how long can passive buyers defend if aggression stays one-sided?