⚠️ The US Treasury is now in a state of interest rate captivity—
Interest payments already account for about 14% of federal spending, but the current yield on government bonds is only 3.7%.
What if it goes back to the 6% levels of the 1990s? The fiscal situation could blow up completely.
This is the so-called precursor to Fiscal Dominance: monetary policy is no longer independent, but has to revolve around fiscal sustainability.
The next new chairman, Hassett, advocates for rapid rate cuts, and the bond traders on Wall Street are getting extremely anxious.
Because in bond market logic, rapid r

Kevin Kelly’s Life Advice: In a life full of choices, we can all become the masters of our own destiny!
My biological clock is scarily accurate.
Last night, I was exhausted like a dog before 7 PM,
and at 4 AM sharp, I woke up and couldn’t fall back asleep.
Kevin Kelly says:
Life is all about choices,
so let’s start by choosing to record things,
like this book I finished on the plane—it’s pretty great!
For this long flight,
I brought Kevin Kelly’s “Excellent Advice for Living,”
an easy book to flip through.
It’s a collection of scattered life advice,
each from different stages of the author’s l

According to Forbes, BlackRock's CEO revealed:
Some sovereign wealth funds are buying Bitcoin, and as Bitcoin's price pulled back from the $126,000 peak, "they increased their buying efforts."
He stated that these funds are "gradually" buying in and ramped up their positions when the price dropped to around $80,000, aiming to build long-term holdings.

I should try to go out less in the future; it's too draining. It'll probably take me a week to recover once I get back!

⚡️Polymarket data shows that Hassett’s probability of being nominated as Fed Chair is over 80% ——
Who is Hassett? One of the go-to economists within the Republican Party, a typical dove, and someone who has fully aligned himself with Trump.
If he takes office, he won’t be as conservative; the pace of rate cuts could be 2–4 times faster than Powell’s, completely unleashing inflation and ushering in a new era of money printing.
He has only one goal: to use rate cuts and tax reductions to drive US economic growth to the numbers Trump wants.
So in the coming year, we might see ——
1⃣ First stage: S

What’s going on!
How did U drop below 7 just while I was out for a meeting?
In this market, is it possible to lose money even while holding no positions?

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is currently reported at 89%!

The US uses tariffs + a strong dollar to survive, while Japan uses interest rate hikes for self-protection.
The whole world is paying the price for the rising costs of dollar hegemony!

I really love autumn:
Especially this morning,
Directly personified the autumn wind sweeping away the fallen leaves:
The wind gradually grew stronger.
The treetops sway,
Golden leaves are blown down, swirling, and scattering,
covered the riverbed,
is also covered with this beautiful autumn day.
Every fallen leaf underfoot reminds me:
When the old cycle comes to an end,
A new cycle is beginning.

🚨 It's pretty much what I expected before; in our country's style, the policies encouraging childbirth will inevitably be gradual. Here it comes? —
Starting from January 1, 2026, contraceptives will be subject to value-added tax, and the 30-year tax exemption policy will be canceled!
Those who understand a bit about economics know that taxes are never just about money; taxes are about attitude, direction, and policy signals.
After all, the birth rate has plunged to 1, and the country holds meetings every day to discuss the population crisis. Common practices include reducing costs, lo

⚡️ The dark November has passed, what will December be like?
Garbage time is just like this—
This is my least favorite stage because when there is no direction, people start to overthink.
But it is also the stage I am most accustomed to, as garbage time can force one to see clearly what logic they are actually relying on.
So for me,
The main task in December is not to make money, but to stay sensitive, stay patient, and maintain positions;
Keep writing, keep walking 10,000 steps a day, keep connecting. There are many things you can do during your downtime, don't waste yourself away!
Thanks

Occasional fragmented reflections during fragmented time in the future.
I will publish on,
A Brief Note on the Gaps
Notes in the Gaps
Strive for daily updates!

🚨 In the past month, the inflow of capital into the #Crypto market has decreased from $60 billion to $10 billion, and making money in the market has finally reached hell-level difficulty!
One feeling I've had recently is especially pronounced:
The market has shifted from "trend-driven" back to "capability-driven." What does this mean?
1⃣When the inflow reaches 60 billion, all you need to do is ride the wave. It's not just those without any investment research skills; even a pig pressing keys randomly to buy can make money.
2⃣ When liquidity suddenly shrinks, it is completely different