#美联储利率决议 Having looked at the latest market expectations, the cumulative interest rate cut of less than 75BP by the end of 2026 is a number worth following. The underlying logic is very clear: the Fed will indeed cut interest rates at this meeting, but with a clearly hawkish tone, and then it is likely to remain on hold.
The key signal is that the momentum of the US economy remains resilient, and the inflation and employment data do not support further significant easing. This means that the market's previous expectations for a rate-cutting cycle may have been overly optimistic. The impac

#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle may be shorter than expected. Here are the latest predictions from several institutions: a cumulative cut of less than 75 BP, a pause in January next year, and a pattern of cutting 25 BP in March and June reappears. A key signal is that Powell will emphasize in his statement that "the threshold for further rate cuts is very high"—this wording change is noteworthy.
From an on-chain perspective, expectations of easing corrections usually lead to a reallocation of funds. Over the past few days, several large wallets have been observed frequentl

#比特币价格目标 on-chain activity indicators continue to rise, and this signal is worth following. According to the logic of TXMC, Liveliness reflects the cumulative comparison of on-chain periodic spending versus holding behavior—when coins change hands more frequently, the indicator rises, which usually represents new capital entering the market.
The key is that under the current price pressure, activity is still rising, indicating that the bottom support from the spot demand side has not weakened, but the price has not yet fully reflected this. This kind of mismatch is often a signal of structura

#代币空投 Stable Mainnet launched, STABLE Airdrop details have been organized.
The core logic is straightforward: rewarding early participants, with distribution rules based on two main lines – holding staking certificates from the first two phases, and users who deploy their certificates to the Morpho, Pendle, and Uniswap integration vaults. Meeting multiple category conditions can accumulate rewards.
Several points worth noting:
**The application deadline is March 2, 2026**. The period is relatively ample, but the data accumulation of early participants is worth tracking, as it will reflect the

#代币预售与空投 The details of the Zama sealed Dutch auction have been sorted out, several key signals worth follow:
**Essence of the Auction Mechanism**: This FHE encrypted bidding system indeed avoids the issue of early bidding in traditional Dutch auctions—bids are public but the quantity is kept secret, accumulating demand from high to low to determine the transaction price. In other words, you cannot see how much others want, only how much they bid, significantly reducing the degree of information asymmetry.
**Pricing Expectation**: The bottom price of $0.005 corresponds to a 55 million FDV, be

#美联储政策 The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates on Wednesday, but the key lies in Powell's attitude. Multiple institutions unanimously expect a 25BP cut, with the focus on how he will define the policy space for 2026 - this will directly determine the direction of liquidity in the first half of next year.
The perspective of Bank of New York Mellon is worth noting: this time it is "hawkish rate cuts," indicating that the easing cycle may be nearing its end. The FOMC dot plot will reveal divisions within the committee, which is often a trigger point for market repricing. Given the un

#美联储政策 The liquidity gap at the end of the year is beginning to show. The pressure in the money market of $12.6 trillion continues to rise, and bank reserves are no longer sufficient - this signal is clear enough.
The key point of the Federal Reserve's meeting this week is not whether it will take action, but how Powell will articulate the specific measures for the next steps. From the data perspective, the issue of the composition of the balance sheet after halting quantitative tightening has not been resolved, and now the high financing costs have instead become a trigger to accelerate

#Binance Alpha The NIGHT Airdrop of Binance Alpha caused quite a stir. First, there was a latency announcement, then it reopened at 17:30, and now the data is out - the single number yield is about $15, based on a coin price of $0.025 and 600 Tokens.
From an on-chain perspective, this detail is worth noting: the market capitalization of $450 million and the threshold set at 230 Alpha points for participation indicate that Binance is still considering its criteria for selecting participants. The scale of the airdrop and the coin price are not significant, but as a continuous operation case for

#经济不确定性与通胀 The 30-day trading volume of alts has once again fallen below the annual average, which is a signal worth following. Historical data shows that such low trading volume ranges are usually a period for positioning—sluggish volume actually means that Auto-Invest ( DCA ) has the best cost.
The key is to clarify the current logic: high economic uncertainty and fluctuating inflation expectations lead to pressure on risk assets, which is the fundamental reason for the decline in alts trading volume. However, from another perspective, the cost of entering in a low liquidity environment is

#稳定币项目与生态 Circle has obtained a Financial Service license in Abu Dhabi, which is another signal of compliance expansion in the stablecoin sector. From on-chain data, the liquidity distribution of USDC is continuously optimizing - the allocation weight in the Middle East and Africa markets is rising, especially through official channels.
Key observation: The appointment of executives from Visa to lead regional strategy indicates that Circle is not merely engaging in symbolic Compliance, but is establishing a systematic institutional cooperation framework. What does this mean for the stablecoin

#稳定币 Stable Mainnet has been launched, and Token claims are now open. According to the prediction data from Polymarket, the probability of the first day's FDV exceeding $2 billion is 85%, a figure worth following.
Let’s break down the underlying logic: high-probability predictions usually reflect the market's consensus on the project's fundamentals, but one must also be wary that such predictions may become self-fulfilling prophecies. The key is to observe the actual liquidity situation after the application— the true value anchor of stablecoin projects lies in ecological applicat

#借贷协议风险 The Solana lending market is indeed experiencing internal strife. I looked at the data - the Sol ecosystem's lending scale is about $5 billion, while Ethereum is ten times that, and the gap with the TradFi collateral market is several orders of magnitude. In this situation, Kamino and Jupiter are still blaming each other for risk models, which is a typical case of "internal consumption."
The key issue lies in the expression of risk. Jupiter previously claimed that the treasury had "zero contagion risk," but this was later pointed out to be an inaccurate statement; Kamino subsequen

#美国经济数据 The Fed's interest rate decision will take place early this Thursday, and the key point of this meeting is not the rate cut itself—an 84% probability has already locked in a 25bp adjustment—but rather the internal disagreements within the policy committee.
Among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 opposed or expressed doubts about further easing, which is the first time since 2019. The dot plot is likely to reveal this divergence, especially regarding expectations for the policy direction in 2026. In addition, with the upcoming change in the Fed chair, the policy inclination of t

#RWA代币化 The SEC has concluded its two-year investigation into Ondo without filing any charges—this marks a significant turning point for the RWA sector.
From the on-chain data, after the message was released, $ONDO saw a short-term increase of 7.6%, breaking through $0.5. This reflects not only the release of sentiment but also the market's repricing of regulatory certainty. The key point is that this is the SEC's first "complete clearance" determination for major tokenized asset platforms, meaning that the compliance path has been substantively recognized.
Several signals worth track

#减半机制 The BTC triangle pattern is still being repeatedly confirmed, and the key now is whether it can effectively break through the upper resistance. From the data, the small-level support has moved to 88,000-89,000, and this range is a reference point for future go long. After ETH fell below 3000, it quickly rebounded, indicating that the support at this psychological level is strong. Once it holds above 3000, the probability of continuing to rise is indeed quite high.
The real turning point is on December 10th - the Fed's interest rate cut is basically a certainty, with the key being th

#稳定币 The stablecoin inflow data is worth following. In 2025, the net inflow will break $100 billion, indicating that traditional funds have begun to enter the market systematically. More interestingly, the scale of yield-generating stablecoins has doubled, reflecting the market's structural demand for "Liquidity + Yield" – no longer just a simple safe-haven tool, but beginning to carry capital allocation functions.
From the perspective of on-chain contract tracking, the daily trading volume of perpetual DEX has skyrocketed from billions to hundreds of billions. This growth rate is not hyp

#美联储政策影响 The BTC triangle pattern is still waiting for a breakout, with short-term support having moved up to the 88,000-89,000 range. As long as it doesn't touch the lower edge of the pattern, there is still a chance. After ETH managed to hold above the 3,000 mark, it began to pull back. Next, we will focus on whether it can hold above this position again during a small-level retracement.
The key point is the Federal Reserve's decision on December 10th. From the current data, a rate cut seems to be a foregone conclusion, but the real good news is yet to come — the U.S. bank rate team

Last Friday's ETF capital flow data is worth a close look. Both BTC and ETH experienced net outflows, with a single-day BTC outflow reaching $195 million, which indeed reflects institutions reducing risk amid macro uncertainties. But what's more interesting is the internal rotation of capital flows—XRP ETF accumulated inflows approaching $900 million, and altcoins like Solana are also seeing modest gains.
This is not a large-scale retreat but a selective positioning. Institutions are clearly re-pricing risk assets; while mainstream assets are under pressure, they are seeking alternative target

#比特币价格走势 The $80,000 key level is indeed worth paying attention to. From on-chain data, the trading volume and whale movements around this price in early December will be crucial in determining whether it's a genuine breakout or just a test.
Recently, there has been a divergence in the actions of large addresses — some whales are gradually reducing their positions at high levels, while institutional capital inflows have not shown a significant decline. This indicates market stratification, and short-term volatility may be expected.
If Bitcoin truly tests the $80,000 level again, the more impo

#加密货币监管 The Central Bank of Argentina is considering lifting the ban on bank crypto transactions, and this signal is worth paying attention to.
From an on-chain perspective, this reflects a reality: Argentina is already one of the most active crypto adopters globally, with a large amount of funds flowing into Bitcoin and stablecoins. Although there is a ban, the demand for capital flow still exists—it's just being pushed into the shadow financial system. Once banks obtain regulatory approval to participate, we can expect changes in two directions:
**First, on-chain activity may decrease.** Cu