Peterson predicted a turning point for Bitcoin, but ETFs tell a different story

Economist Peterson used an unusual analysis method — studying the number of profitable months in various 24-month periods of Bitcoin’s history. Based on this research, he concluded that the long-term upward trend of BTC should begin on December 22. However, actual market data are not rushing to confirm such an optimistic forecast.

Monthly trend statistics: when is the economist right?

CoinGlass analysts collected data on how Bitcoin performed throughout 2025. Out of twelve months, the price increased only in six — January, April, May, June, July, and September. During the rest of the time, the price showed a decline. Interestingly, November has historically been the most successful month for BTC since the start of the cryptocurrency era in 2013, with an average return of 41.13%. This statistic significantly differs from Peterson’s December forecasts.

Fear index signals extreme panic

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, reflecting investors’ emotional state, recently dropped to a critically low level of 9 — indicating extreme fear in the market. On the Polymarket prediction platform, participants estimate the probability that December will be the best month for Bitcoin this year at only 17%. November looks slightly more promising with an 18% chance. These figures clearly demonstrate traders’ skepticism about short-term bullish trends.

Sentiment is returning to normal: Santiment analysis

The Santiment platform, specializing in crypto community analysis, noticed an interesting trend — the number of forecasts about Bitcoin’s price movement on social media has begun to decrease. According to platform experts, this is a positive sign indicating that market sentiment is returning to neutral territory. Loud calls for the price to soar to $150,000–200,000 or fall to $50,000–100,000 are gradually disappearing from public discourse.

ETFs are not just investment funds — they are indicators of major players’ behavior

Spot exchange-traded funds tied to Bitcoin’s price serve as an important barometer of institutional investors’ sentiment. Over the past five weeks, ETFs have experienced continuous net capital outflows. During this period, investors withdrew approximately $3.8 billion. In just the last week, the net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs was about $315.9 million. Such consistent outflows indicate a cooling of interest from large investors.

Bitcoin activity volume: all signs of slowdown

Santiment also highlights a concerning fact: overall Bitcoin network activity is steadily decreasing. Transaction volume, active addresses, and network growth metrics all show a clear downward trend. This may indicate that the current period is characterized by a transitional market state, where participants are waiting for clear signals of direction.

Thus, although Peterson sees a potential turning point in December, ETF behavior and comprehensive data from analytical platforms paint a more complex picture. The market does not seem ready for a confident upward move yet, and every investor should consider the full scope of available data when making decisions.