🌹Judgment on the current crypto market cycle👇Absolutely helpful

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🌹Core Conclusion
We are still in the early stages of a new bull market, and there is still some distance to go before the real explosive rise (and the subsequent bear market). The main criteria for judgment are the following five points:
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🐯1. Systemic explosions have not yet occurred.
The turning point from bull to bear in the last round was accompanied by the collapse of high-leverage giants such as Luna, 3AC, and FTX.
So far in this round, only sporadic hacking incidents have been observed, with limited financial involvement, and there has not been a chain collapse similar to a "large-scale deleveraging."
Without a deep explosion of risks, there is a lack of catalysts for the overall deleveraging of the market and a complete shift in sentiment to bearish.
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🐯2. Leverage expansion is still in the "testing phase"
Currently, while the derivatives positions and on-chain lending are increasing, both institutions and retail investors are relatively restrained, and it is far from the time to loosen up and "go all in" to double down.
As long as the total leverage is not out of control, the momentum of the bull market will not be quickly reversed.
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🐯3. The dominant force in this round is "sovereignty and pension capital"
Past cycles were often led by star companies or family offices; this time the narrative is that the government level will incorporate Bitcoin into reserves, driving sovereign funds, pension funds, and other deep-pocketed institutions to enter the market.
This type of capital is large in scale and has a long holding period, which can push the price of Bitcoin to $150,000 to $200,000, paving the way for subsequent retail FOMO.
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🐯4. The "second wave" of retail investors and DeFi leverage has yet to arrive.
When the government and institutions provide support, retail investor sentiment will truly be ignited, with a large amount of capital leveraging through DeFi protocols, entering the credit expansion cycle.
That is the acceleration phase of the "frenzied bull market", and it is also the phase where risks accumulate the fastest.
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🐯5. The signs of the future bear market peak: high leverage + chain explosions
We need to be vigilant about the emergence of high-leverage chain liquidations in on-chain or centralized pt - once a single point of failure similar to Luna/FTX occurs and spreads rapidly, it means the peak has been reached.
Currently, no signs of such risks have been observed, so it's too early to say "the bear market has arrived."
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🎉Summary
Current position: early stage of the bull market, jg and zf are in the layout period.
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The upcoming catalyst: Sovereign and pension capital continues to buy → BTC hitting 150,000 to 200,000 USD → Retail FOMO + DeFi leverage expansion.
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The real warning line: pay attention to whether systemic leverage explosions occur; that is the reliable signal for the beginning of a bear market.
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In other words: the bear hasn't arrived yet, and the bull is just sharpening its knives. It currently feels more like a gathering before the storm, rather than a retreat before the curtain falls.

#sol #flock #pi #eth #btc