What changes in the industry landscape can be seen in the US election from Web3?

Original title: “Returning from the U.S. and discussing the impact of the election on the Web3 industry”

Original Author: Meng Yan’s Block Chain Thinking

I just finished my trip to the United States and returned to Australia. Before I set off, I thought that after this trip, I would be able to write a few unique and profound essays to elaborate on the current situation and trends of crypto in the United States. However, when I actually started writing, it seemed like there were many images floating in front of my eyes, but my mind felt empty. Over the past two years, I have traveled to many places from the perspective of crypto, but none have been as difficult to write about as the United States. This country is too large, too rich, and too important, which has given me a psychological pressure. Every time I try to express an opinion, a bunch of faces and materials come to mind to refute it before I even start writing. In such a dilemma, a person with high demands on themselves would never produce misleading content. However, I don’t have high expectations for myself, and I have a thick skin. Even if I mislead others, I don’t feel ashamed and even take pride in it. Therefore, I have decided to forcefully write something, like a blind person feeling an elephant, not seeking the correctness of my opinions, nor fearing criticism, just discussing the facts and some simple thoughts I have seen and heard.

Where to start? This one-month trip to the United States happens to coincide with the 2024 U.S. election. Almost everyone I meet talks to me about this topic, and I have heard many interesting viewpoints. So, I will start by writing an article from the perspective of the Web3 industry to discuss my observations of the U.S. election.

Crypto? A Small Matter

If there is any widespread Consensus about this election, it is that many people realize that this is an extremely important election in the history of the United States and even the world, and it may affect the direction of history for decades to come. Before I came to the United States, from the perspective of the Web3/crypto industry, what I was most concerned about was the impact of this election on this industry. But when I arrived in the United States, I had a cup of coffee and called a fren who lives in the United States. He analyzed the far-reaching impact of this election from various aspects such as economy, politics, immigration, social security, Sino-US relations, and the Russo-Ukrainian war, and even I gradually realized that compared with these major topics, crypto is actually a small matter. Even if we are most relevant to this industry, we should not ignore those larger topics. Therefore, let me start with a few big topics. Of course, my output is definitely one-sided, but I only tell the truth and am not responsible for objectivity and fairness.

Public security is not a shameful matter, but the economy is a major issue.

During my time in the United States, I only visited two states, California and Washington, both of which are politically blue states. I had discussions with about a dozen people on topics such as the presidential election, AI, and Web3. The majority of them were Chinese, with two Caucasians and one of Indian descent. I must admit that I struggled with my English when discussing these topics, and the depth of the discussions in English was much lower compared to Chinese. Therefore, the most insightful and interesting viewpoints for me came mainly from Chinese friends.

The most interesting point I heard was a fren defining this election as a choice between Trump’s second term and Obama’s third term. During my time in the United States, I happened to witness the only TV debate between Trump and Hillary. It is generally believed that Hillary won the debate. However, according to this fren’s recollection, during the 2019 Democratic Party primaries, Hillary performed extremely poorly in a televised debate with multiple opponents and was heavily criticized by her party rivals. It was only due to Obama’s support and promotion that she could have the opportunity today, as she couldn’t even pass the party primaries based on her own abilities. It is certain that her outstanding performance in this TV debate was also due to the meticulous support and training from Obama’s team behind the scenes. In other words, judging from Hillary’s background and abilities, her source of power is Obama. In the political arena, one must be accountable to the source of their power, so if she is elected, she will definitely be first and foremost loyal to Obama, fully implementing his will in governance. Therefore, it is more accurate to say that it is a competition between Trump and Obama rather than Trump and Hillary.

This also directly led to some people’s denial of He Jinli. Because the US election has a mature system, candidates start from the party primaries, publicly accept the screening of party members round by round, and the winner accepts the party’s nomination to compete in the presidential election. He Jinli first served as vice president and now as a presidential candidate, without going through the party’s primary selection process, but was operated by Obama behind the scenes. Some frens exclaimed, how come the thick eyebrows and big eyes of the American Democratic Party are now playing small circle palace politics like a trap? I have to say that I had not thought about this before. After listening to their remarks, I also feel a bit strange.

So what will one choose between Trump and Obama? That’s a matter of opinion. Some people think that Obama is not bad, quite decent. And this fren, as well as another Chinese-American United States I met, was quite intense, and they believed that Biden, as a representative of the Clinton faction, embodied the ideas of the Democratic establishment, and generally scored positive for the past four years. But choosing Barack Obama as president in 2008 and keeping him in office for eight years was the biggest mistake the people of United States have ever made in history. As for why they said this, they did not elaborate on it for me, only saying that Obama’s damage to United States was deep in the bone marrow, and that gritted teeth reminded me of Prince Gong’s hand-holding Guangxu Emperor before he died, “It is difficult to cast this big mistake by gathering the iron of Jiuzhou.”

However, this can be considered an extreme opinion. Others believe that Biden/Harris has done a much better job in actively promoting U.S. investment in the high-tech industry, managing U.S.-China competition rationally, and repairing relationships with allied countries compared to Trump. In particular, the new Cold War-style competition between China and the U.S. is a core event in international affairs today and for the next 20-30 years, which has a profound impact on everyone in the world, especially for the Chinese. The work done by the Biden administration in regards to U.S.-China relations, in my opinion, should be recognized by the majority. Of course, I have heard some criticism of Biden being too weak on China on social media, but I have not seen this viewpoint among the Chinese community, especially among my friends.

When it comes to domestic affairs, I feel that people are generally dissatisfied with the Democratic Party’s governance over the past four years. The main criticisms are focused on the economy, illegal immigration, and social order. Illegal immigration and the related issues of vagrants, drugs, and social order are the main points of their complaints, and of course, they are also popular topics in the Chinese internet about the ‘ugly country’, ‘Free America, shooting every day’ has long become a popular phrase in the domestic online comment section.

But I have to tell you the truth, I don’t have much say in illegal immigration and policing because nothing has happened. Of course, when the homeless gathering near Little Saigon in Seattle did look like a street party of ragged people, but as I walked through them with a large bag in hand, they ignored a bald Asian rough man, and there were no threatening words or body movements. As for someone who set up a tent and slept on the streets of Westwoods, Los Angeles, he kindly taught me how to pay for parking. However, as a side note, his teaching skills were really bad, and I received the only suspension ticket on the trip. What really touched me about the homeless problem was a black aunt I met on the San Francisco airport train, she was fat, dirty and sloppy, her bare calf skin was blue and purple, pus and blood spilled from her heels, and her whole body emitted an indescribable stench. This stench, which was never smelled even in the eighties and nineties of the last century on Chinese migrant workers, was enough to form a fatal chemical attack on “decent people”. I knew at a glance that this lady was suffering from severe diabetes, and if it was not effectively treated, I was afraid that she would have to have her leg amputated within a few months to save her life. The problem of homeless people in San Francisco must be very serious, and presumably those rumors about fentanyl walking corpses, smashing cars, and shootings will not be groundless, but I haven’t seen any of them.

I have first-hand experience of the soaring prices. The last time I came to California was in 2018, and now when I look at it again, the prices are so high that I don’t even recognize them compared to back then. From restaurants to hotels, from car rentals to gasoline, from price tags to tip options, every price tag reminds you that this is a crime scene of massive inflation.

Actually, for my generation who experienced the prosperous period of the Chinese economy, the rise in prices is not unfamiliar. In the early 1990s, when I was in high school, the hot dry noodles near Hubei Lane in Zhonghua Road, Wuchang District, cost 1.8 cents for two taels, and I needed to eat four taels for one meal, which cost 0.36 yuan. It was one of the extreme feelings of happiness that a teenager could get in that era. Now the same amount of hot dry noodles cost 5-6 yuan, which has risen more than ten times. However, this rise has happened little by little over several decades, and with the greater increase in people’s income, so apart from complaining that the taste of hot dry noodles is not as good as it used to be, few people have much objection to the price.

But the United States is different. The price level in the United States soared in the past three or four years after a long period of stability. I remember Professor Chen Zhiwu from Yale University once used his own experience to introduce the stability of prices in the United States in the past. He said that when he went to Yale to study in 1986, a bowl of beef noodles next to the school cost 5 01928374656574839201. In the early 2010s, when he had become a professor, he returned to the same shop and found that the bowl of beef noodles was still 5 01928374656574839201, which made him deeply moved. It can be seen that the United States once maintained low inflation for decades. I didn’t go to New Haven this time, so I don’t know how much that bowl of beef noodles costs now. However, in the Bay Area, meals that cost less than 10 01928374656574839201 in 2018 are now generally priced at 17 to 20 01928374656574839201 or more. If you take someone to a slightly distinctive restaurant, please note, it’s just a restaurant, not fine dining. The average cost with tips easily exceeds 100 dollars per person.

The hotel prices have also experienced a big pump. The price of a five-star hotel in China allows you to stay in a motel room, making you think of the scene in the movie ‘No Place to Go’ where the mushroom head chases and kills Thanos with a high-pressure gas tank and a silencer sprayer. And some hotels charge an additional $30-40 parking fee per day under the pretext of valet parking. In AirBnb’s classic BP during its financing, it was clearly stated that the average room rate for one night was $70. Now, this average price needs to be multiplied by three. In short, it is expensive. Fair to say, we cannot simply complain about hotel prices because hotel prices in Australia are also expensive. But a friend from Seattle told me that hotel prices in Seattle have suddenly skyrocketed in the past three or four years.

Other tourists’ expenses: car rental, in 2008, you could rent a car for $35 a day, now it costs $65-80. Regular gasoline 87, $4-5 per gallon, about 7.50-9.20 RMB per liter, I don’t know how it compares with domestic prices, but it’s more expensive than in Australia. Overall, if I were to guess, as a tourist, travel expenses in the United States may be 50-80% more expensive than six years ago.

The situation of residents will definitely be better, and the things in the supermarket will definitely not rise so much. But the food prices I saw in a very good local food supermarket, Trader Joe’s, were also higher than the level of Woolworth/Coles in Australia, about 10-30% higher. I checked that from 2018 to 2024, per capita GDP in the United States rose by 36%. But I believe a large part of this rise has been eaten up by inflation. A famous economist in China said that China’s GDP in 2024, calculated by purchasing power, is 1.3 times that of the United States. Although some people say that his main business is swimming and talking tough, his economic views are not very reliable, but I think that in this matter, he is probably not too far from the truth.

The issue of the depreciation of the US dollar in the country is something that everyone has read about in the media, but it is difficult to realize how serious the problem is without personally experiencing it. The American fren I have contact with also feel the pain of this issue. Therefore, this is definitely the biggest economic failure of the Democratic Party’s four years in office.

But there are also fren who believe that Trump is the initiator of the rise. The trade war with China, the ineffective epidemic control, and the crazy point shaving of the Federal Reserve, these are all things that happened during Mr. Know-it-all’s tenure, and these are the root causes of the current rise in the United States. How can we blame Biden for this? I am powerless to analyze this kind of argument.

If there is a dispute about whether the responsibility for inflation should be borne by Trump or Biden, the most profound and powerful criticism I have heard of Democratic economic policies is about tax reform.

My friend R, who is a entrepreneur in the crypto industry (omitting his name without his permission), gave me a detailed interpretation of a series of ‘extremely left-wing’ reforms in corporate income tax and capital gains tax by the Democratic Party since the Obama era, which made me shudder and sweat. In short, during the Biden administration, the United States has modified the deferral system for corporate income tax, and is now considering taxing unrealized capital gains on stocks. According to my friend’s explanation, these two reforms will heavily impact the enthusiasm of entrepreneurial enterprises and their employees, create a squeeze effect on employment in the high-tech industry, undermine the long-term investment enthusiasm of American stockholders, promote speculation, and even severely depress the valuation level of the American stock market. Tax issues are very complex and professional, and I don’t have the ability to describe them accurately. But if his analysis is correct, even as a layman, I believe that these tax reform measures are shaking the foundation of the American economic system. It feels like something that even someone who doesn’t have a deep grudge against America wouldn’t do.

However, I have some doubts about it without careful study. Can these people really do it? So on this topic, I still need to learn and understand more, and I dare not draw conclusions easily.

There are many other issues, such as undermining the rule of law with political correctness, misplacement of the social welfare system, media manipulation, waste of public budget, official corruption, and so on, many of which are more profound. In short, after listening, I feel that the Democratic Party has accumulated quite a few contradictions during its governance in recent years. Even in deep blue states, there are so many complaints. But unfortunately, I only visited the United States briefly, and I am not capable of forming my own opinions on these issues, so I will not elaborate.

Of course, after reading the above description, it may give the impression that the U.S. economy is very bad and the people are very dissatisfied. So I have to correct it. It’s not like that. The current U.S. economy is strong and thriving, presenting a vibrant and competitive scene. If you compare the U.S. with Australia, the U.S. economy is clearly on the rise, and the American people’s spirits are also significantly higher. However, as the most mature large-scale mass democratic practice in the world, the U.S. election has fully mobilized the enthusiasm of the people for political participation under the promotion of various campaign organizations and media mechanisms. Therefore, it has brought the accumulated problems of the past few years to the table for discussion, creating an atmosphere that the U.S. is at a crossroads of life and death, thus highlighting the seriousness of these problems. If this were not an election year, I am afraid that few people would talk to me so much about these issues.

Mediocre Trump

Even in the deep blue state, the majority of the people I communicated with, who are fren, support Trump, while those who support He Jinli are in the minority. However, I found that actually no one is satisfied with either of them, they just choose the lesser of two evils. Therefore, the main disagreement between them is about ‘who is worse’.

When I mentioned this discovery to a fren I was talking to, and then I added a sentence, it would be great if Reagan could come out at this time. When he heard this, a brief glimmer of light flashed in his eyes. People of our age can all understand this kind of emotion.

Now the whole world has entered an era of mediocrity, and what kind of foundation will this group of mediocrities lay for the future world? I dare not think, it’s hard to say.

Among this generation of leaders, Trump is certainly not the most ‘mediocre’, but the word ‘mediocre’ is quite applicable to him.

Among the fren I met, even those who support Trump don’t hesitate to criticize many of his shortcomings, such as speaking without thinking, disrespecting others, and being prone to empty talk. However, these are all minor issues. The main problem that everyone criticizes heavily is his attitude towards the Russo-Ukrainian war.

I believe that Trump’s appeasement towards Russia now represents the sentiment of some isolationist Americans. But to be honest, I haven’t met anyone like that. Only an Indian fren gave a hypothesis about this, that Trump may be trying to quickly stop the war and pull Russia to focus their force against China. But even this Indian guy himself said that if this is true, Trump is too wishful thinking. Putin has a famous saying of “sitting on the mountain and watching the tigers fight” in the previous China-US trade war. If he can get out of the quagmire in Ukraine, will he jump into the arms of the United States?

Let’s not speculate on Trump’s logic on this issue for now, but just his communication with the outside world is really bad.

So this also raises another widely questioned issue about Trump, whether he is already too old and unable to keep up with the times.

Many people believe that Trump is a good card in this election. Not to mention the once-in-a-lifetime highlight moment of dodging bullets and waving the national flag with his arms outstretched, it is the problem of domestic inflation, as long as he holds on and chases hard, it is enough to win the election. But I don’t know why, Trump seems to have lost the sharp street smart of the past in this election, especially in the debates, many times in the killing Node to release koi, but instead make a big fuss about the topic of cats and dogs, which is really incomprehensible. Back to the Russia-Ukraine issue, as long as he talks about a little strategy and reads “The Forerunner of History”, he can get a high score on this issue. But he just didn’t do it, it was indeed a lack of oriental wisdom. Take 10,000 steps back and say, even if you have to tell the truth, then you can talk about your logic, okay? Talking about it every day, what can achieve peace on the first day of taking office, what is the impression that I am fren with Emperor Pu, and what impression do you give to everyone? Isn’t it the gray-haired Chamberlain and Truman? So many people wonder if he is also surrounded by the information cocoon he has created, losing his sense of reality, and losing his strategic flexibility and flexibility?

But no matter what, among the people I’ve come into contact with, the majority support Trump. It’s not because these people really like Trump or strongly dislike He Jinli, but because they sincerely believe that if the Democratic Party continues to govern, some of the underlying institutional foundations of the United States may be destroyed. Let me put it this way, someone told me that the logic behind the Democratic Party’s campaign is, even though you don’t know much about He Jinli, if you dislike Trump, please vote for me. But through my exchanges with Trump supporters, I’ve found that their logic is the opposite: I may not like Trump very much, and I don’t know much about He Jinli, but I know exactly what kind of person Obama is, so I must vote for Trump.

In short, the US election is really too complicated. I think if I had a ballot, I would be undecided after hearing so much information. Luckily, I don’t have that ballot, so I don’t have to worry about it.

Crypto Topic Enters the Election: Breakthrough from Zero to One

Finally, I can return to the Web3/crypto topics that I am more confident about. In fact, the reason why I wrote so much before was to provide a background for my colleagues in the Web3 industry, so that everyone can understand that compared to those big topics mentioned above, Web3/crypto is a small matter and will not have any decisive impact on this election.

However, although small, it is still a breakthrough from zero to one. After all, crypto has become a topic in this election, which is the first time in the history of the US election. I hope everyone does not overlook the significance of this matter. I believe that with the development of the industry, several years later, every US presidential candidate must propose a crypto strategy to win over voters.

Currently, the two candidates have made statements on crypto. Trump’s stance seems very positive. Not only did he attend a BTC conference to support BTC and use BTC to buy hamburgers for diners, but he also criticized the SEC’s attitude towards crypto, claiming to appoint a crypto-friendly person as chairman. On the other hand, He Jinli only briefly mentioned digital assets and blockchain in recent speeches, and it is difficult to judge whether it is a deliberate policy declaration or a perfunctory statement to attract votes. Based solely on these superficial observations, if Trump wins, he is likely to adopt a more crypto-friendly policy, which could lead to a Bull Market in the crypto market and accelerate the development of the Web3 industry. If He Jinli is elected, the development of the crypto market and the Web3 industry will definitely be slower, but there will still be progress.

Of course people will question whether these statements by the two candidates will really be implemented or just a “bluff”? I believe that Trump should already have a view on crypto and if elected, he will intend to implement his series of policy proposals. He Jinli, that is, the Obama team, has not really figured it out yet, so there is more flexibility. If He Jinli takes office, there are various possibilities. If Trump takes office, the certainty is relatively high.

Why do we see it this way? Precisely because crypto is a minor issue, it does not have a decisive impact on the election results. Neither candidate needs to pump votes on this issue, so their positions are relatively trustworthy. Particularly Trump, who doesn’t bother with pretty words on the Russia-Ukraine issue, has no need to be insincere about crypto. On the other hand, their positions also align with the values of their respective parties. The Republican Party emphasizes individual freedom, which is more compatible with the value system of crypto. The Democratic Party, on the other hand, is a disciplined organization that advocates for government empowerment and increased regulation, leading to some friction with crypto. However, the Biden/Harris government is indeed dedicated to supporting the development of high-tech industries. Therefore, if Web3 proves to be a strategically valuable direction in the high-tech industry in the coming years, Harris also hopes that their current stance has reserved enough flexibility.

In this situation, how do we judge the impact of the election on the crypto industry and market? In my opinion, regardless of the election result, BTC will experience significant development, which is less affected by the election result and has higher certainty. However, the impact of the election result on other Web3 tracks besides BTC, whether it is bullish or bearish, whether it is a big bull or a small bull, is more severe.

BTCFi: The Blue Ocean is Coming

BTC is currently the largest Consensus common divisor between the crypto industry, Wall Street, and the SEC, which will send BTC into a relatively stable period. During this period, BTCFi will usher in significant development, and even if the industry environment deteriorates, BTC as digital gold will stand alone.

The logic of BTCFi is this: Wall Street regards BTC as a commodity, in order to accommodate BTC into their familiar asset framework. After this work is completed, BTC assets interact with funds from Wall Street institutions. Compared to the previous complete support from the crypto world, BTC has gained another dimension of support, just like adding another leg to the table, which will significantly improve stability. But don’t forget, BTC is a programmable digital asset. Previously, the relationship between BTC and Decentralized Finance was relatively weak, and BTCFi did not have much development. People’s understanding and exploration of BTC’s programmability were insufficient. Wall Street, looking at the dull BTC, felt no different from gold, wheat, and crude oil, so they put it in the commodities category. However, BTC is not gold, wheat, or crude oil, but a programmable digital asset. Now that Wall Street has rectified BTC, the Trojan horse has entered the city, and it’s time for the crypto industry to take advantage of BTC’s programmability. Based on BTC, through programming, we can realize a series of financial operations such as reserves, stake, lending, trading, derivatives, etc. on-chain, creating a prosperous BTCFi.

The essence of BTCFi is to add leverage on top of BTC. Various different businesses are all different forms of leverage. The programmability of BTC provides convenience for the development of these leverages, while the openness and transparency of blockchain greatly reduce the trust friction. This is the core advantage of BTCFi. The most feared thing about adding leverage is the unstable foundation and the earth-shaking. The participation of Wall Street has consolidated this foundation, so adding leverage to BTCFi has a lot of room for imagination. In due course, there will be a multiplier relationship between the value of BTCFi and BTC, that is, several times the total value of BTC itself. This situation has occurred in other major asset classes and is only a matter of time in BTC.

Of course, this requires a longer period of benign external environment incubation. And if Trump comes to power, it is possible that such an external environment may appear earlier. On the one hand, Wall Street itself will inevitably do some Derivatives around BTC, providing more tools to consolidate the foundation of BTC. On the other hand, in the crypto industry, the construction of BTCFi will be themed around builders, fully leveraging programmability, and will definitely generate a series of innovations. Compared to other branches of Decentralized Finance, BTCFi is more likely to gather Consensus, obtain orthodoxy, and have a more solid foundation, so its development is certain. If Trump comes to power and governs for four years, BTCFi will take shape. If He Jinli comes to power, this development will be slower, but it will definitely happen.

What is the worst case scenario? It is the threat of Trump, world war, chaos in the world. In this situation, the development of Web3 may need to explore in the dark for a longer time, but only BTC, as digital gold, will highlight its value. And BTCFi, as the Decentralization reserve, trading, and lending infrastructure of BTC, will obviously be more vital than the centralized system in the situation of chaos in the world.

Of course, I don’t think that a world war will happen soon, so let’s plan the development of BTCFi based on an optimistic scenario.

Geoffrey Moore, a renowned marketing expert, has a famous ‘chasm’ model, which states that there is a deep chasm between early adopters and the mainstream market for a new technology, and the majority of technologies and products fail to cross this chasm. However, I believe that if Trump comes to power, the BTC ecosystem will cross this chasm in the next four years. It may take longer, as He Jinli said, but it will definitely cross. According to the general rule, once a technology product crosses this chasm, the total market size will increase by more than tenfold. For BTC, this rise in scale will come partly from the appreciation of BTC itself, but mainly from the development of BTCFi.

By the way, the above analysis is also the basis for Solv’s long-term development strategy judgment. Now Solv is the largest protocol in TVL in BTCFi, but in fact we think this is just the beginning. Solv has made a lot of infrastructure-level innovations for BTCFi. If you just treat it as a reserve protocol, it’s hard to understand why we should do these things. In fact, Solv believes that BTCFi is about to usher in a big development, so it is preparing these infrastructures in advance, which is also a typical blue ocean strategic thinking. So, from a selfish point of view, I still hope that Mr. Know-it-all will enter the palace.

Web3 needs order colonization

The biggest task for Web3 now is to create large-scale applications with a large number of users and practical value. A large number of users is easy to understand, but what does practical value mean? It means having real consumption scenarios and revenue models, that is to say, users pay not to invest and earn more money, but to buy enjoyment, happiness, and satisfaction. It can be said that as long as this obstacle is overcome and coupled with the improvement of the external environment, Web3 will be able to usher in a real outbreak.

So what is the current situation of Web3 development? It is a situation where one leg is long and the other is short. The long leg is technology, and the short leg is industry order.

I have repeatedly told my friends around me, don’t look at Web3 technology with an old mindset. Many people were so badly deceived by the grandiose ICOs of 2017-2018 that their impression remains deeply ingrained, and their understanding of Web3 has been stuck in the era of ‘air ICO projects’. Even those who are aware of the applications of Web3 have a negative impression of its technological maturity and user experience. Yes, just two or three years ago, most DApps were still underperforming, costly, and provided a poor user experience, exuding a strong geeky flavor. However, in just these two or three years, Web3 technology has made significant progress in almost all crucial aspects. Some of the technical verification products I have seen recently have user experiences that can come very close to Web2. Therefore, I believe that the main contradiction in the entire Web3 has now shifted from the rapid development of Web3 technology to the serious lag in product and application ecology.

Many people are struggling to figure out why there are no large-scale applications in Web3. People have come up with many reasons, analyzed it, and tried to summarize which products are suitable for Web3 and which are not. But I think the core reason lies not in the products themselves, but in the corruption of industry order.

Although Web3 technology has made great progress, turning technology into successful products requires investment, incubation, research and development, operation, promotion, marketing, regulation, listing and other entire industry orders. And the most core part of this is the order of listing. We say that Silicon Valley is the global innovation center, not because the talents inside are really versatile, but because Silicon Valley has established an order that is most conducive to rewarding innovation, and has coordinated with the SEC and Wall Street to provide innovators with full order support from cradle to listing. This order was once exported to China, thus creating the brilliant 20 years of China’s Internet. Therefore, order is crucial and decisive.

When Bitcoin and Ethereum succeeded, many of us thought that the blockchain brought a new order that was more free, open, equal, and transparent. But sowing dragon seeds, harvesting fleas. After seven or eight years of practice, the crypto industry has not only failed to nurture a new order that surpasses Silicon Valley, but has instead established a more twisted, ugly, and upside-down fraudulent order. After Token 2049 in Singapore this year, many attendees have written summary essays. If you read these essays with a perspective of summarizing the order, it is not difficult to get a glimpse of the current real order in the crypto industry, which is how bad and desperate it is. This terrible industry order is the real reason hindering the development of Web3.

Order is a product, and it is the most important and expensive product. Some countries and regions have not been able to establish a benign order for thousands of years, and have always been struggling in the quagmire of history. Similarly, what worries me most about the Web3 industry is that it cannot evolve a benign order solely on its own. At least for now, I don’t see any hope.

The practical solution to this problem is to open up and introduce external builders, welcome orderly colonization, quickly purify the existing five turbid evil world, and establish a new set of rules. The closest thing I have seen to this goal is the “Token Safe Harbor” proposed by the SEC in the United States. This proposal allows crypto projects to enter a three-year safe harbor for financing and incentives through token issuance without being subject to securities laws. However, after three years, the project must meet a series of conditions to leave the safe harbor and enter a normal operating cycle. If a project in the safe harbor is suspected of fraud, the responsible person will be punished accordingly by law. I think it is not difficult for people who are interested in the crypto market to see that such a proposal grasps the key and lays the foundation for the emergence of a new order.

It is in this sense that we examine the impact of the US election on Web3 in order to grasp the key. If, regardless of whether Trump or He Jinli comes to power, BTCFi will develop well, then the difference between Trump and He Jinli is significant for the future of Web3. If Trump fulfills his promise and appoints a crypto-friendly SEC chairman, we may see proposals like ‘Token Safe Haven’ implemented in a short time, and a new and benign industry order will gradually be established, sparking countless Web3 innovations. And if He Jinli comes to power, whether or not the SEC changes personnel, it is highly likely to continue to pursue today’s policies, which are based on the old order’s dogma, uncompromisingly pushing crypto out and occasionally lashing out at this new field. If this is the case, then I think the establishment of the new order in Web3 may have to grope in the dark for a long time.

Therefore, most crypto enthusiasts hope that Trump wins the election, perhaps simply out of expectations for the price and Liquidity of the currency. But what I value more is whether Trump, once elected, can really promote a change in the SEC’s attitude towards crypto, which is the key to whether Web3 can quickly To The Moon.

Original text link