KaiTuo Macro: Presidential debate performance triggers changes in the election situation, and a Trump victory could lead to stagflation risks

June 28th, Golden Ten Data: Economists at Capital Macro said that President Biden’s ‘wobbly’ performance in Thursday’s debate could give Trump a slight edge in the November presidential election. In a report, they said that if Trump wins and implements strict immigration restrictions while significantly increasing import tariffs, this combination could lead to stagflation. Economists said that concerns about the rebound in inflation would force the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy, increasing the risk of economic recession and angering Trump, who would do everything in his relatively limited power to oust Powell. However, the election is still neck and neck, and there is still a long way to go until November.