XRP News Today: Decoupling from Bitcoin Signals Flash, Bulls Rebound to Challenge $3

XRP retreated after failing to break through $2.2, but the US XRP ETF market recorded a net inflow of $50.27 million on December 3, marking 13 consecutive trading days of net inflows and bringing total net inflows since inception to $874 million. The divergence between XRP and Bitcoin ETF capital flows has intensified speculation of decoupling, and holding the $2.0 psychological support could pave the way for the mid-term target of $3.0.

ETF 13-Day Net Inflow and Divergence from Bitcoin

(Source: SoSoValue)

Despite overall market volatility, net inflows into XRP spot ETFs are approaching $1 billion, highlighting robust institutional demand. On December 3 (Wednesday), the US XRP spot ETF market recorded a net inflow of $50.27 million, marking 13 consecutive trading days of net inflows. Since inception, the ETF has accumulated $874.28 million in net inflows, just a step away from the $1 billion milestone.

On Wednesday, Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) led the inflow rankings with a net inflow of $17.93 million, bringing its cumulative inflow since inception to $209.02 million. Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) continued to top the inflow list, while GXRP surpassed Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP) to take the second spot. This shift in rankings shows evolving institutional investor preferences, with Grayscale’s brand advantage and trust conversion strategy starting to take effect.

Meanwhile, although Franklin Templeton is the largest asset manager among the four ETF issuers, its XRP spot ETF ranks at the bottom in terms of capital flows. This contrasts with its leading position in the traditional ETF market and may reflect crypto investors’ preference for issuers specialized in the crypto sector rather than traditional asset managers.

The four XRP spot ETFs alone have attracted nearly $1 billion in inflows. Additional upcoming XRP spot ETFs will further impact the supply-demand balance and price trends of XRP. If products from top institutions such as 21Shares, WisdomTree, and CoinShares are approved for launch in October, they could inject hundreds of millions of dollars in new demand for XRP in a short period.

XRP News Focus Today: ETF and Bitcoin Decoupling Intensifies

Nevertheless, the capital flow trends of the XRP spot ETF and BTC spot ETF have diverged, intensifying market speculation about XRP decoupling from BTC. On December 4, as funds again flowed out of the US Bitcoin spot ETF market, Bitcoin prices fell to $90,000, dragging down the overall crypto market. However, the XRP ETF maintained net inflows, indicating institutional demand for XRP is independent of Bitcoin.

Such a divergence is extremely rare. Traditionally, XRP and Bitcoin have shown high price correlation, with XRP typically falling more than Bitcoin during downturns. However, current capital inflows into XRP ETFs contrast with outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting institutional investors may be rotating assets from Bitcoin to XRP. The logic behind this rotation may be that after Bitcoin’s significant rally, it is overvalued, while XRP, having gained legal clarity, remains undervalued and offers a higher risk-reward ratio.

Sustained net inflows support a bullish price outlook and increase the likelihood of XRP escaping Bitcoin’s shadow, which is crucial for XRP’s price trajectory. Given the impact of US economic data on the Fed’s rate path and ultimately on BTC price trends, decoupling could be critical. If XRP can truly decouple from Bitcoin, it would establish an independent price discovery mechanism, no longer passively following Bitcoin’s ups and downs.

Strategic Significance of the $2 Psychological Support

(Source: Trading View)

On December 4, XRP fell 4.56%, erasing the previous day’s 2.03% gain, closing at $2.0970. The token underperformed the broader market, which fell 1.6%. Thursday’s sell-off caused XRP to breach both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), reinforcing a bearish bias.

The 50-day EMA stands at $2.3068, and the 200-day EMA is at $2.4922. Breaching both key moving averages is typically viewed as a technical weakening signal. In technical analysis, the 50-day EMA represents the mid-term trend, while the 200-day EMA represents the long-term trend. When the price is below both averages, it indicates a bearish mid- to long-term trend. However, fundamentals have diverged from technicals, supporting a bullish outlook.

Holding the $2.0 psychological support will pave the way for a move toward the 50-day EMA. The $2.0 mark is a round-number threshold with strong psychological significance. A large number of limit buy orders may be set at this level, providing technical support. Sustained breakthroughs above the 50-day EMA will give bulls a chance to challenge the $2.35 resistance level. Breaking through the 50-day EMA would signal a short-term bullish reversal, with an expected rise to $3.0 within 8 to 12 weeks.

XRP Key Technical Levels Today

Support levels: $2.0 (psychological threshold), $1.9112, $1.8239 (November low)

Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, 50-day EMA $2.3068, 200-day EMA $2.4922

Mid-term target: $3.0 (8-12 weeks)

Invalidation level: A break below $1.8239 would invalidate the mid-term bullish structure

These technical levels provide traders with a clear operational framework. Conservative investors can build positions in batches near $2.0, setting stop-losses below $1.82. Aggressive traders can wait for a breakout above the 50-day EMA at $2.3068 to chase momentum, targeting $3.0.

Dual Catalysts: Fed Data and Market Structure Bill

On December 4, expectations for Fed rate cuts in December and March cooled, and Bitcoin fell to a daily low of $90,901. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell from 218,000 in the week ending November 22 to 191,000 in the week ending November 29. Notably, the last time jobless claims dropped below 200,000 was in January 2024, indicating the labor market remains resilient.

Declining jobless claims and persistently high US inflation will reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts, thereby dampening demand for risk assets. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December dropped from 90.0% on December 3 to 87.0% on December 4. Meanwhile, the probability of a Fed rate cut in March 2026 is 48.8%, down from 53.4% on December 3.

XRP will be in the spotlight on Friday, December 5, as the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index will provide insight into inflation and whether the Fed will cut rates in December and March. Easing inflation could push XRP prices closer to $2.2.

However, passage of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill will also affect XRP’s price trend. If passed, this bill will provide a clearer regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, removing some legal ambiguities around whether certain tokens are securities. For XRP, while the lawsuit with the SEC is largely resolved, a more comprehensive legislative environment would still boost institutional allocation willingness.

Mid-term price catalysts include: expanding investor participation in spot ETFs, progress on the Market Structure Bill in Congress, and expectations for Fed rate cuts in December and March. These catalysts support a short-term (1-4 weeks) rise to $2.35, and a long-term (8-12 weeks) move up to $3.0. Downside risks to the bullish outlook include: hawkish policies from the Bank of Japan and the Fed, MSCI removing DAT from its indices, partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill, and capital outflows from XRP spot ETFs. These events could drag XRP down to $2, making the November low of $1.82 possible again.