CZ teams up with former employee dingaling—Is Predict.Fun set to disrupt the prediction market?

CZ officially announced that the prediction market platform Predict.Fun, incubated by his YZi Labs, is about to launch on BNB Chain. The platform’s biggest innovation is that users’ staked funds in predictions will no longer remain idle, but will continuously generate yield through integrated DeFi strategies. Its founder is none other than former Binance employee dingaling, who previously had a public falling out with CZ over an “insider trading” incident. This collaboration marks a temporary “reconciliation” between the two based on shared business interests, aiming to seize the prediction market boom and establish BNB Chain as the core global prediction infrastructure.

When CZ and dingaling Shake Hands: A “Reconciliation” Based on Interests

The crypto space never lacks dramatic twists, and the “grand reconciliation” between CZ and dingaling is undoubtedly one of the most talked-about recent events. On December 4, CZ publicly teased the launch of Predict.Fun on social media, clearly stating it was incubated by YZi Labs with a founding team from Binance. Those familiar with the backstory immediately recognized that the founder is dingaling, the former employee whom CZ personally exposed and accused of “insider trading” back in May, which led to his dismissal. Going from a public feud to jointly launching a project is not simply a tale of bygones being bygones, but rather a naked calculation of interests.

Who is dingaling? In crypto entrepreneurship history, he’s a highly controversial “serial entrepreneur” and “trend chaser.” From launching PancakeSwap during Uniswap’s boom, to creating LooksRare at OpenSea’s peak, to founding boop.fun inspired by pump.fun, his track record closely follows the hottest market narratives. Although boop.fun ended in disappointment and damaged his reputation, it’s undeniable that dingaling has an exceptionally sharp sense for market trends and mechanism innovation. Now, he’s set his sights on the burgeoning prediction market and brings his new project back into CZ’s line of vision.

For CZ and YZi Labs, the prediction market is a strategic high ground that must be seized. Pioneers like Polymarket have already proven the sector’s potential, and recently Trust Wallet integrated a “Predictions” feature. YZi Labs needs a team that can execute quickly, understands market dynamics, and can bring traffic to build a flagship product. Despite past grievances, dingaling’s abilities—and his “black history”—may actually be his best bargaining chip: a founder who needs to prove himself with a successful project and who can be held accountable is often the most motivated. Thus, driven by a shared commercial goal, past grudges are temporarily set aside, and a mutually beneficial collaboration begins.

Predict.Fun Mechanism Breakdown: More Than Just Prediction—A “Capital Efficiency Revolution”

Setting aside the founder drama, Predict.Fun’s technical architecture and business model are noteworthy. Unlike most prediction platforms that use an automated market maker (AMM) model, Predict.Fun returns to the classic order book model from traditional finance. This allows users to place limit orders and interact with tighter bid-ask spreads, reducing slippage for large trades and enabling more precise pricing. This design clearly targets a more professional, higher-volume user base, aiming to elevate prediction from entertainment “gambling” to a serious “information market.”

However, its core innovation—and the main selling point promoted by CZ—lies in “capital efficiency.” On traditional prediction platforms like Polymarket, users’ staked funds are locked and idle until the outcome is revealed. Predict.Fun claims that through DeFi integration, these staked funds can continuously generate yield during the prediction period. This essentially creates a new paradigm of “predict-to-mine” or “predict-to-earn.” Users are not only betting on outcomes; their principal is also simultaneously engaged in low-risk yield generation. If this mechanism proves stable, it will greatly improve users’ capital efficiency and willingness to participate, and may even attract DeFi-only users to enter the market.

To ensure result fairness, Predict.Fun uses a hybrid oracle solution. For most events, it uses UMA’s Optimistic Oracle, which accepts results by default unless there is credible dispute; for complex or rapidly changing events, it introduces manual verification based on authoritative media sources. This dual-layer design of “machine efficiency + human adjudication” aims to balance speed and reliability. Additionally, the platform features a “bond market,” allowing users to lock funds in high-certainty events for stablecoin-like returns, further blurring the lines between prediction, speculation, and yield generation.

Predict.Fun Core Mechanisms and Early Data Overview

Underlying Chain: BNB Chain

Trading Model: Order book model (supports limit orders)

Core Innovation: Staked funds earn DeFi yield (no more idle capital)

Oracle Solution: UMA Optimistic Oracle + manual media verification

Distinctive Feature: Bond market (yield on high-certainty events)

Early Data: Two markets live, total trading volume around $300,000

User Base: Claims over 12,000 users, nearly 300,000 bets placed

Traffic Effect: CZ’s announcement tweet received over 590,000 views

Perfect Timing? The Tailwinds and Thorns of Prediction Markets

The birth of Predict.Fun comes as global prediction markets experience both highs and lows. On one hand, the market potential is huge, with projections of over 220 million global users. Platforms like Polymarket have hit record trading volumes due to events like the US election, proving strong demand for expressing opinions with real money, hedging risk, or pure entertainment. On the other hand, the specter of regulation looms large. Recently, Connecticut issued cease-and-desist orders to Robinhood, Kalshi, and Crypto.com, accusing them of offering unlicensed sports betting services. So far, more than ten US states have taken legal action against prediction markets.

This regulatory pressure may actually present a differentiated opportunity for Predict.Fun, which is based on BNB Chain and targets a global user base. Polymarket, closely tied to the US market, is heavily affected by regulation, whereas Predict.Fun can leverage BNB Chain’s global user base and flexible operations to focus on markets outside the US. Its mobile-first design and low gas fees also make it especially attractive for retail users in emerging markets to participate in predictions on sports, entertainment, and global current events. Its target may well be a broader but more fragmented “world market.”

However, challenges remain. The depth and variety of native stablecoins on BNB Chain still lag behind Ethereum, which may limit Predict.Fun’s liquidity scale. Furthermore, while the order book model is efficient, it requires active market makers and sufficient trading depth to function well, raising the bar for a successful launch. More importantly, prediction markets remain in a legal gray area in most jurisdictions, and the platform must tread carefully to avoid accusations of “unlicensed gambling,” especially in sensitive areas such as sports and political elections.

Changing the Landscape: Can Predict.Fun Define a New Narrative for BNB Chain?

Regardless of Predict.Fun’s ultimate success or failure, its appearance has already sent multiple signals to the market. First, it signifies that BNB Chain is consciously expanding its ecosystem boundaries. For a long time, BNB Chain has been known as a high-performance chain excelling in DeFi and GameFi. Now, by supporting infrastructure like Predict.Fun, BNB Chain is attempting to position itself as a “global prediction engine,” competing for the next possible killer application category. This aligns with CZ and the Binance ecosystem’s consistent “traffic entrance” mindset.

Second, Predict.Fun’s “yield on staked capital” model could set a new product standard for the entire prediction sector. If this model is proven both successful and secure, competitors will have to follow, or risk falling behind in capital efficiency. This will drive prediction markets to evolve from simple “betting contracts” toward complex “financial synthetic assets,” deepening their integration with DeFi. From this perspective, Predict.Fun is not just an application, but potentially a paradigm shift for the industry.

Finally, this event prompts us to re-examine relationships and business logic in the crypto world. Here, there are no eternal enemies, only eternal interests. A founder’s “black history” can be temporarily washed away or forgotten in the face of massive profit potential and traffic. Community trust, meanwhile, becomes more cautious and mature with each “hot project” cycle. The story of Predict.Fun is yet another vivid case of capital, traffic, technology, human nature, and regulation intertwining in the crypto space.