Ethereum Breaks $3,200 as Fusaka Goes Live: $4,262 Now in Sight If History Repeats

2025-12-04 06:08:25

Ethereum surged 7.38% in the past 24 hours to reclaim $3,210, decisively breaking a multi-week consolidation range just hours after the successful activation of the Fusaka hard fork on December 5, 2025. The long-awaited upgrade, powered by PeerDAS and complementary EIPs, instantly unlocked up to 8× higher data throughput for Layer 2 rollups while laying the groundwork for future L1 gas limit increases — giving traders the exact fundamental catalyst the market had been waiting for.

On-chain data and technical structure now mirror the exact setup that preceded the 56% post-Pectra rally earlier this year, putting $4,262 firmly back on the table before year-end.

What Fusaka Actually Delivered

PeerDAS live: Nodes now sample only ~12.5% of blob data while guaranteeing full availability → theoretical ceiling of 128–160 MB/s across all L2s combined.
Immediate blob utilization jump from 41% to 67% within the first 12 hours as Base, Arbitrum, and OP Mainnet began routing higher data loads.
Blob gas price collapsed 43% from 18 gwei to under 11 gwei, making rollup posting dramatically cheaper.
Foundation for future L1 gas target hikes from 30M to 45M+ (expected Q2–Q3 2026).

Technical Setup: The Pectra Playbook Is Repeating

The current chart is almost a carbon copy of late April 2025, right before Pectra triggered Ethereum’s run from $2,340 → $3,650 (+56%):

Metric	Pre-Pectra (Apr 2025)	Today (Dec 5, 2025)
Price	$2,340	$3,210
Weekly RSI	48 → 72	51 → 69 (rising)
ETH/BTC ratio	0.048 bottom	0.047 bottom
L2 fee revenue (7d avg)	+ 1,420 ETH	1,680 ETH (new ATH)
Distance to 1.618 Fib	+58%	+57% →~$4,262

Price Targets If Fusaka Mirrors Pectra

Near-term (1–3 weeks): $3,653 (1.272 Fib extension + May 2025 highs)
Primary bull target: $4,262 (1.618 Fib of the entire summer correction)
Stretch (Q1 2026): $4,880 (measured move from the 20-month cup-with-handle breakout)

On-Chain Confirmation

Exchange ETH balance at 2023 lows (13.4% of supply)
Staking rate hit all-time high 34.1% post-Fusaka (more ETH locked = less sell pressure)
L2 TVL crossed $58 billion for the first time, up 11% in 48 hours
Open interest in ETH perpetuals surged $2.8 billion with funding rates flipping positive

Bottom Line

Fusaka isn’t just another technical upgrade — it’s the scalability unlock the market has been pricing in all year. With the exact same technical, on-chain, and sentiment setup that fueled the 56% Pectra rally now repeating at higher price levels, the path of least resistance is clearly upward.

If history is any guide, $4,262 isn’t a question of “if” but “when” — and the countdown started the moment PeerDAS went live.

ETH-0.55%

BTC-1.14%

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