K33: Bitcoin long-term holders' selling pressure approaches "saturation," and the distribution cycle may be coming to an end

BlockBeats News, December 17 — Research and brokerage firm K33 stated in a report released yesterday that the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing saturation after years of distribution, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to gradually ease. K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde pointed out that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years has been continuously decreasing, with approximately 1.6 million BTC reactivated and flowing into the market, worth about $138 billion at current prices, reflecting ongoing on-chain selling by early holders. Lunde believes that this scale has clearly exceeded what can be explained by technical migration or structural adjustments, indicating substantial distribution behavior. The report states that 2024 and 2025 will become the second and third highest years in Bitcoin history for long-term supply re-circulation, only behind 2017. Unlike the distribution cycle driven by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms in that year, this round of selling is more driven by long-term holders directly realizing deep liquidity gains to meet US Bitcoin spot ETF and corporate financial needs. Looking ahead, K33 expects selling pressure to gradually diminish. Lunde said that about 20% of Bitcoin supply has been reactivated in the past two years, and on-chain seller pressure is approaching saturation. The supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years may end its current downward trend in 2026 and remain above the current level of approximately 12.16 million BTC. Additionally, K33 also pointed out the potential asset rebalancing effects at quarter-end and the beginning of a new quarter. Given that Bitcoin significantly underperformed other assets in Q4, funds with fixed allocation ratios rebalancing at the end of the year and early next year could bring phased capital inflows to the market.