在比特币价格短线剧烈波动的背景下，莱特币（LTC）近期表现明显偏弱。12 月 18 日，比特币一度反弹至 89,500 美元后快速回落至 84,500 美元附近，市场情绪随之转冷。受此影响，莱特币在短短 5 小时内下跌约 7.5%，最低触及 72.64 美元，创阶段新低，目前价格回升至 75 美元上方，但整体走势依然承压。
从中期结构来看，莱特币已失守 80–84 美元这一长期关键支撑区域。此前市场普遍将该区间视为多头防线，但过去两周买盘持续减弱，多头未能有效守住阵地。即便莱特币被纳入 Bitwise 10 大加密货币指数 ETF（BITW），也未能扭转其下行趋势，显示市场信心依然不足。
从成交量和链上数据分析，2025 年固定范围成交量分布显示，年内价值区域高点约在 120 美元，价值区域低点约在 83 美元。随着价格跌破该价值区间下沿，卖方力量明显占优。OBV 指标持续走低，表明抛压仍在主导市场。跌破 80 美元后，73.4 美元、66.5 美元以及 59.6 美元成为中长期需要关注的重要支撑位。
短线来看，清算热图显示 73 美元附近的流动性已基本被清空，价格存在技术性反弹的可能。若反弹延续，82–83 美元可能成为短期“磁力区”，但该区域阻力较强，突破难度较大。进一步上方的 88–90 美元区域聚集了大量空头清算，但在当前市场环境下，触及该区间的概率较低。
综合趋势判断，莱特币整体结构仍偏空。高时间框架内买盘动力不足，反弹更可能被视为做空机会。对于交易者而言，若价格回测 80–84 美元区间受阻，可关注回落风险，下方目标支撑依次为 66 美元和 59 美元。在趋势未明显扭转前，保持谨慎和偏空思路更为稳妥。
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