Let me talk about crude oil.

After hitting bottom, a rebound has begun. From a chart perspective, selling pressure is extremely heavy and lacks the conditions for a direct V-shaped reversal.

Japan's Thursday reserve release on Thursday is a real "increase in supply," meaning it's a clear bearish catalyst. Meanwhile, Wang Yi just spoke with Iran's foreign minister on the phone, with Iran saying it's currently only blocking the strait for warring nations.

Based on my assessment: upside momentum will be blocked, followed by a second bottom test.

Given that the moving average resistance near 104.5 is too close, combined with Japan's epic reserve release bearish catalyst about to materialize, this rebound will likely not go far. Funds will probably use this bearish catalyst to push prices down again, testing and potentially breaking through the 100.00 support level.

If it breaks through 100, under the underpinning sentiment from Iran's geopolitical crisis, if it can quickly form a long lower shadow and pull back above 100, that would indeed be a bear trap, and subsequent rebounds could test 106 or even higher.

However, if the actual impact of the reserve release exceeds expectations, causing a large bearish candle to directly break through 100 without recovery, then this becomes a trend breakdown. The downside space would be completely opened up, and previous stubborn long holders would face a stampede.

Currently, either wait for the rebound to reach the 104.4-106.8 moving average resistance zone showing signs of fatigue before shorting; or patiently wait for this pullback, and observe around 100.00 whether there's a clear "breakdown and recovery" stabilization signal before going long.