📌 According to CME FedWatch data, traders have abandoned rate cuts in April, with the probability of maintaining rates unchanged at 92.8%.

Apart from the US, other major central banks were prepared to gradually cut rates, but now they are all turning hawkish——
📍 Bank of England unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged, with markets pricing in two rate hikes of 25 basis points each within the year.
📍 Europe is more sensitive to energy price shocks, with markets betting on at least one rate hike within the year.
📍 Reserve Bank of Australia has already raised rates, with markets betting on a further 65 basis points of hikes within the year.
📍 South Korea and India, with markets pricing in four rate hikes each over the next two years.
A war has completely overturned global monetary policy, with all asset pricing swinging back and forth between two diametrically opposite scenarios of "stagflation" and "ceasefire."
In this environment, the most dangerous move is to bet on a single direction;
Whatever you do, don't get cocky with some risky operations—keeping your hands in check is the best strategy!