Gold plummets 10% in a day, the safe-haven king's crown falls.

Gold has dropped nearly 20% from its January all-time high, approaching a technical bear market. It has fallen 10% just since the Iran war began.
By normal logic, geopolitical conflict escalation should push gold up. Why is this time different?
The market has repriced rate expectations: rate cuts are basically postponed to after end-2026, and "higher for longer" has become consensus. Meanwhile, oil prices have surged due to Middle East tensions, pushing up inflation expectations, which in turn reinforces the high interest rate environment. High real interest rates are gold's greatest enemy.
More notably, if adjusted by M2 money supply, gold's current valuation level is close to the historical peaks of 1974 and 2011. In other words, even as nominal prices are falling, relative to global liquidity, gold is still actually at elevated levels.
Wall Street has surrendered. The latest Kitco survey shows institutional analysts are collectively bearish on gold's near-term trajectory, and retail sentiment has also turned pessimistic.
An interesting phenomenon: since gold broke below $5,000, its movement has become highly positively correlated with BTC. Two digital gold candidates are being repriced on the same battlefield.
So who is the true value investment?