📢 早安!Gate 廣場|4/5 熱議:#假期持币指南
🌿 踏青還是盯盤?#假期持币指南 帶你過個“放鬆感”長假!
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1️⃣ 假期心態: 你是“關掉通知、徹底失聯”派,還是“每 30 分鐘必刷行情”派?
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📅 4/4 15:00 - 4/6 18:00 (UTC+8)
Going in circles, the price has returned to the 70,000 level again!
Although the daily chart has shown 8 consecutive positive candles, in technical analysis, we have been emphasizing that this type of consecutive gains has significant flaws: first, the gains are insufficient, and second, consecutive rises in a weak market are not strong bull market gains, but rather in a weak bear market, they can only be defined as rebounds!
I'm also very worried about seeing reversal signals, especially when positive candles are interrupted and turn negative. In fact, over the past month or so, there has always been this pattern: whenever a negative candle appears after consecutive positive ones, the trend gets disrupted. It's not the deceptive upside movement you might think, nor is it momentum accumulating for another explosive surge. Historical results have proven that in weak markets, when a rebound ends and positive candles terminate, a continuation of decline often follows. We can believe it won't break new lows, but you must accept oscillations in weak markets—this is the pattern, and it's an iron law of technical analysis!
Yesterday's decline has resulted in a pullback of 5,000 points over the past two days, and the daily chart has formed consecutive negative candles. Looking ahead, I believe the probability of oscillation is relatively high. Even if there's a breakdown, it's unlikely to happen this week. The first point is that during the previous consecutive gains, there were many doji or small positive candles, meaning when the price returns, there will be a secondary correction. Based on oscillations around the 70,000 level!
Yesterday's daily chart was quite weak, automatically breaking below 73,000, and the bulls showed no counterattack strength. In the early morning, it only reached 72,000 before facing pressure again. Today's main theme allows both bullish and bearish participation. First, the primary approach is bearish. This morning, the highest rebound of 71,500 already showed a decline. If there's another rebound later, this position is expected to see a breakthrough. For stability, I believe reaching around 73,000 to look for a decline is appropriate, using this point as the daily pressure level and the previous consecutive gains' pressure level for a top-bottom conversion reversal—this shouldn't be a problem. Opportunities may be hard to come by, but they won't never come!
The upside position is also easy to judge: just focus on the previous suppression points touched multiple times with subsequent declines, and the key breakout point for acceleration. That's right, the 68,500-69,000 range. I presume your expectations align with mine. Since that's the case, let's not say much more and just wait for the opportunity to board the ship!