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我們可以將交易系統的抽象理解為:
每筆預期收益 = 勝率 × 每次盈利金額 – 失敗率 × 每次虧損金額,再簡化就是:每次賺到的錢,減去每次虧損的錢之後的平均值。
這裡套入三個角色:
1. 散戶:勝率45%,預期收益 = 0.45 × 1.5 – 0.55 × 1 = +0.125
2. 普通交易員:勝率50%,預期收益 = 0.50 × 1.5 – 0.50 × 1 = +0.25
3. 職業交易員:勝率55%,預期收益 = 0.55 × 1.5 – 0.45 × 1 = +0.375
你可以看到,從散戶到普通交易員,勝率+ 5%,收益就翻倍,勝率+10%,預期值卻漲了200%,差距遠比想像大...#金价突破5500美元