As of October 31, 2025, the Bitcoin price fluctuated between $107,000 and $109,000, once again demonstrating its signature volatility.
However, looking further ahead, professional asset manager Bitwise has painted an even more striking picture for Bitcoin in 2035: a bear case of $88,005, a base case of $1,306,740, and a bull case soaring to $2,976,927.
01 Current Market Conditions: High Volatility and Institutional Confidence
Reviewing the Bitcoin market at the end of October 2025, the price action was nothing short of dramatic.
After dropping below $107,000 on October 30, Bitcoin rebounded on October 31, climbing back above $109,000.
This kind of short-term volatility is a hallmark of the Bitcoin market and provides important context for understanding long-term forecasts.
Despite sharp price swings, on-chain data reveals a much more stable underlying foundation.
According to Bitwise’s analysis, about 70% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in at least a year, indicating that the vast majority of holders are taking a long-term approach and remain confident in Bitcoin’s future.
02 Bitwise’s 2035 Forecast: Three Scenario Analysis
In Bitwise’s 2025 long-term capital market assumptions for Bitcoin, three possible scenarios for 2035 are outlined in detail:
- Bear case: $88,005 (annual compound growth rate of 2%)
- Base case: $1,306,740 (annual compound growth rate of 28.3%)
- Bull case: $2,976,927 (annual compound growth rate of 39.4%)
These projections are not simple extrapolations from previous cycles, but are built on a detailed analysis of the potential market sizes Bitcoin could penetrate.
Total Addressable Market Model
Bitwise’s model considers seven key categories: store of value, institutional portfolios, emerging market currencies, offshore wealth, national reserves, U.S. corporate treasuries, and remittances.
In the base scenario, Bitcoin is expected to capture 25% of the store of value market, which is the primary driver behind the projected price increase.
When these market shares are translated into specific price targets, Bitwise uses Bitcoin’s fixed long-term supply—21 million coins.
This approach is actually conservative, as it does not account for lost coins or the possibility that not all supply will be in circulation by 2035.
03 Drivers of Long-Term Growth: Three Pillars Supporting Bitcoin’s Future
Scarcity: An Asset Even Rarer Than Gold
Scarcity is at the heart of Bitcoin’s value proposition. After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate dropped to just 0.78%, far below the inflation rates of global fiat currencies.
Currently, 94.8% of the total supply is already in circulation, leaving only about 1.26 million coins yet to be mined.
By 2032, Bitcoin’s annual issuance rate will fall from 0.8% to 0.2%. This fixed supply stands in stark contrast to fiat currencies, which can be printed at will.
Institutional Adoption: Demand Far Outpaces Supply
Institutional demand for Bitcoin is surging. As of now, 35 publicly traded companies each hold at least 1,000 Bitcoins, up from just 24 at the end of Q1 2025.
MicroStrategy (still named MicroStrategy) continues to lead corporate accumulation, holding over 632,457 Bitcoins valued at more than $71 billion.
Even more striking is the supply-demand imbalance. Miners produce only 450 Bitcoins per day, while institutions are withdrawing over 2,500 Bitcoins within just 48 hours.
According to Bitwise, institutional demand now exceeds daily production by a factor of six, creating ideal conditions for upward price movement.
Macro Backdrop: A Hedge Against Fiat Currency Depreciation
Against the backdrop of persistent fiat currency depreciation worldwide, Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value continues to grow.
U.S. federal debt has increased by $13 trillion over five years, reaching $36.2 trillion. Annual interest payments now total $952 billion, making it the fourth-largest item in the federal budget.
In this macro environment, Bitcoin—an asset with inelastic supply and independent of any central government—is attracting more investors seeking to preserve their wealth.
Bitwise notes, "The inelastic supply of Bitcoin, combined with steadily increasing demand, is the core driver of our long-term assumptions."
04 Other Forecasts: Diverse Perspectives on Bitcoin’s Future
Beyond Bitwise’s detailed projections, there are other market outlooks for Bitcoin’s price in 2035.
Some analysts suggest that if active Bitcoin users grow from 12 million in 2025 to 50 million by 2035, the price could reach $1.5 million.
From a gold market capitalization perspective, with gold’s total market value around $10 trillion, if Bitcoin captures 20% of that, its price would reach $95,000; at 30%, it would hit $143,000.
Considering the halving cycle effect, the average price increase after the first four halvings was 43-fold. The fifth halving in 2028 could push the price past $500,000, and factoring in dollar depreciation, Bitcoin could reach $1.2 million to $1.8 million by 2035.
05 Risks and Challenges: The Road Ahead Is Not Without Obstacles
Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, Bitcoin’s path to 2035 is not without hurdles.
- Regulatory uncertainty: Changes in regulation and legislation in major markets remain a key risk for Bitcoin.
- Market volatility: Bitwise warns investors to expect significant drawdowns; even if volatility trends lower than in past cycles, it will remain a defining feature of the market.
- Technological threats: Quantum computing and other technological risks are a concern, though Bitwise currently views them as secondary issues.
- Competitive pressure: Competing cryptocurrencies like Ethereum offer similar functionality at lower costs and may pose challenges to Bitcoin.
06 Investment Strategy Recommendations: Rational Participation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem
For investors considering Bitcoin, the following strategies may be worth considering:
- Dollar-cost averaging: Some analysts recommend accumulating Bitcoin in batches below $78,000 (the miner production cost), rather than going all in.
- Long-term holding: Given Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential, a "buy and hold" approach may be more effective than short-term trading.
- Portfolio diversification: Including Bitcoin as part of a broader investment portfolio can help manage risk while participating in its potential upside.
Bitwise’s base case suggests a 10-year compound annual growth rate of 28.3% through 2035, far exceeding expected returns from traditional asset classes.
The company combines this with nearly 33% long-term volatility and low correlation with major asset classes.
In their view, Bitcoin can continue to diversify portfolios, even as the asset matures and volatility decreases from historical levels.
Outlook
While Bitcoin’s future may be impossible to predict with precision, the fundamental factors driving its long-term value are clear: scarcity, institutional adoption, and demand for hedging against fiat currency depreciation.
When pension funds or endowments allocate 1%–2% of a $100 billion portfolio to Bitcoin—in a market with inelastic supply—these capital flows could have a profound impact on price.
Bitwise’s report notes that the path over the next decade will depend on the pace of institutional allocation, regulatory stability, and whether the macro backdrop continues to favor scarce, non-sovereign assets.
