🪙💡Update Cardano - is the consolidation already completed?

🚨Comparison with previous analyses

1. Important support zone at $0.85:

In my previous analyses, I have emphasized that $0.85 is a critical support level. This level has not been breached so far, which supports the assumption of a wave 4 as a corrective sideways movement.

As long as the price remains above 0.85 USD, the structure could remain intact, with a sub-wave 5 following.

2. Possible targets for Wave 5:

We had defined $0.90-$0.93 as a short-term target for Wave 5. This aligns with the current assessments of analysts and fits into the Elliott Wave Theory (Wave 5 often ends above the high of Wave 3).

3. Sideways movement (typical for Wave 4):

The price is currently moving sideways, which is typical for wave 4. In my previous analyses, I have highlighted that a continuation to the upside will only be confirmed by an increase in volume and a breakout above the SMA 50 (now 0.8748 USD).
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4. Warning of a false signal:

In my previous analyses, I also pointed out the possibility that Wave 4 could last longer or develop into a complex structure (e.g. triangle).
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Differences from the current assessment of other analysts

1. Conservative approach:

While many analysts consider wave 4 to be almost completed, I remain somewhat cautious because:

The RSI is still relatively weak (below 50).

The volume continues to remain low.

Therefore, I would only consider the completion of Wave 4 with a clear breakout above 0.88-0.90 USD.

2. Potential for a longer correction:

If the support at $0.87 does not hold, we could see a decline to $0.85 before Wave 5 begins. That would be a deviation from assuming an immediate completion of Wave 4.
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Do I share the assessment of other analysts?

Partial.

I agree that we are in a wave 4 and a wave 5 could follow.

But I do not consider the current wave 4 to be safely completed yet, as:

1. The price has not yet sustainably exceeded the SMA 50 (0.8748 USD).

2. The volume confirms the start of wave 5 is missing.
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My recommendation

Keep an eye on the $0.88 mark: a breakout with volume would be a clear buying signal for the start of wave 5.

If the price falls below 0.87 USD, it may be worthwhile to wait for a test of 0.85 USD to reevaluate.

This is not financial advice.

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