#与动态一起迎圣诞 Grayscale Report: Currently in the middle of a bull run, which is expected to continue or rise until 2025.

From a historical perspective, the encryption currency market follows a significant four-year cyclical pattern, during which prices experience periodic fluctuations. Grayscale Research points out that investors can track the cycle of encryption currencies by monitoring a series of blockchain-based and other related indicators, providing powerful references for their risk management decisions.
The encryption currency is gradually growing into a mature asset class. The newly launched spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs broaden the market access, while the upcoming Trump administration may bring higher regulatory transparency to the encryption industry. Based on these factors, the valuation of the encryption currency market is expected to reach a historical high.
Grayscale Research believes that the current market is in the middle of a new encryption cycle. As long as fundamental factors (such as adoption rate and macro market environment) remain strong, the Bull Market may continue until 2025 or even longer.
· Unlike many physical commodities, the price trend of Bitcoin does not strictly follow the "random walk" model. Instead, its price exhibits characteristics of statistical momentum: upward trends are often accompanied by sustained rises, and the same applies to downward trends. Although the price of Bitcoin fluctuates in the short term, in the long run, its price shows a significant upward cyclical trend.
Figure 1: Although the price of Bitcoin fluctuates frequently, it shows an overall upward trend.
· Each historical price cycle has its unique driving factors, and the future price trend will not completely replicate the past. In addition, as Bitcoin becomes increasingly mature and more widely accepted by traditional investors, and the diminishing impact of the halving events every four years on the supply, the cyclical pattern of Bitcoin prices may change or disappear. Nevertheless, studying historical cycles can still provide investors with some guidance on the typical statistical behavior of Bitcoin, helping them with their risk management decisions.
· Bitcoin Historical Cycle Overview
Figure 2 shows the price performance of Bitcoin during each historical bull run phase.
The price is indexed from the cycle low point (the starting point of the rising phase) to 100, and tracked to the peak (the end point of the rising phase). Figure 3 presents the same information as Figure 2 in tabular form.
· In the past two market cycles, the trend of Bitcoin has been quite similar. After reaching its peak in November 2021, the price of Bitcoin fell to a cyclical low of around $16,000 in November 2022. The new round of price increase that started from there has lasted for over two years. As shown in Figure 2, the latest round of price increase is quite similar to the past two Bitcoin cycles, both lasting for about three years before reaching their peak prices. In terms of the increase, the increase of Bitcoin in this cycle is about 6 times, which, although impressive, is significantly lower than the past four cycles. Overall, although it is uncertain whether the future price returns will be similar to past cycles, Bitcoin's history indicates that this Bull Market cycle still has the potential to continue in terms of duration and magnitude.
Figure 3: Four Cycles in the Historical Price of Bitcoin
- On-chain metrics analysis
In addition to observing the price performance of historical cycles, investors can also use various blockchain-based indicators to measure the maturity of the Bitcoin bull market. For example, the profitability of Bitcoin buyers, the influx of new funds, and price levels related to miner income.
One widely watched indicator is the Bitcoin Market Value (MV) to Realized Value (RV) ratio, also known as the MVRV ratio. This indicator reflects the extent to which the Bitcoin market value exceeds the total cost basis of the market. In the past four cycles, the MVRV ratio has reached relatively high levels (see Figure 4). Currently, the MVRV ratio is 2.6, suggesting that this cycle may continue for some time. However, the peak of this ratio in past cycles has been declining, so this cycle may not reach the level of 4.
Figure 4: Historical Trend of Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio
· Some on-chain metrics measure the extent of new capital entering the Bitcoin ecosystem. Grayscale Research tends to use the ratio of the number of tokens moved on-chain last year to the total freely floating supply of Bitcoin (see Figure 5). This metric has reached at least 60% in the past four cycles. Currently, this metric is about 54%, indicating that we may see more Bitcoin on-chain transactions before the price reaches its peak.
Figure 5: The ratio of active Bitcoin to circulation in the past year is close to 60%.
· Other cyclical indicators focus on Bitcoin miners. For example, the ratio between Miner's Position (MC) and the so-called 'thermocap' (TC), known as the MCTC ratio. When the value of miners' assets reaches a certain threshold, they may start to take profits. Historically, when the MCTC ratio exceeds 10, the price subsequently reaches its peak within that cycle (see Figure 6). Currently, the MCTC ratio is 6, indicating that we are still in the middle stage of the current cycle. However, similar to the MVRV ratio, the peak of this indicator in the recent cycle is also declining, so the price peak may come before the MCTC ratio reaches 10.
Figure 6: The peak value of the Bitcoin miner index MCTC is showing a downward trend
· In addition, there are many other on-chain indicators, which may have slight differences from indicators from other data sources. These tools can only roughly reflect the current stage of Bitcoin price increase compared to the past, and cannot guarantee that the relationship between these indicators and future price returns will be similar to the past. However, overall, the common indicators of the Bitcoin cycle are still lower than the levels reached in the past peak prices, indicating that if the fundamentals are reliable, the current Bull Market may continue.