Powell reiterated on Thursday that caution is needed for now, but if more evidence emerges that growth remains above trend, or labor market tensions do not ease, progress on inflation is at risk and further tightening of monetary policy may be needed. The current market believes that the Fed's November pause in interest rate hikes has been determined, and the probability of a December rate hike is only close to 20%. If the US GDP data for the third quarter released this week and the PCE price index in September greatly exceed expectations, the market may reassess the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year.