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I have spent quite a bit of time studying the thoughts of this legendary writer and investor, and honestly, some of his quotes resonate deeply with what I observe in the markets.
The first thing that struck me: people make mistakes not because they lack understanding, but because they believe they know everything. It's so true. I've seen so many confident traders get crushed because they refuse to admit they were wrong. And then he says something I really like: admitting a mistake is something to be proud of. No shame in recognizing you messed up.
Regarding trends, it's interesting. Everything always goes up and down. The important thing is to recognize a change in trend. True skill is finding the turning point. Not predicting the future, but seeing when things change direction.
And then there's this idea of reflexivity that obsess me. Market prices don't just reflect fundamentals; they also shape them. It's not that current expectations correspond to future events, but that future events are actually shaped by present expectations. This is a powerful concept that many people don't grasp.
On risk management, it's clear: it's good to take risks, but don't risk your entire fortune. And if your position doesn't work out, the first step isn't to withdraw everything, but to gradually reduce your investment.
What really interests me in this writer's philosophy is how he sees economic cycles. As credit accumulates, it creates an artificial appreciation of collateral. But once this credit growth no longer stimulates the economy, collateral begins to depreciate. And that's where it gets dangerous: a slight decline can trigger massive repayment demands.
My favorite quote remains this one: global economic history is a series based on illusions and lies. The way to get rich is to recognize the illusion, get involved, then withdraw before everyone discovers the scam. It's brutal, but true.
Regarding investing in general, he says it's not about following the trend. If you follow others, you're doomed to failure. And to succeed, you need free time to think and observe.
What sets a truly excellent investor apart isn't always winning, but having the courage to get up after each failure and become stronger. Not knowing what will happen in the future isn't scary. What's scary is not knowing how to face it if it happens.
The quotes from this writer remind me that markets are not rational, even if we seek rationality. And it is precisely this imperfection, this uncertainty, that creates opportunities. The key is to stay humble, keep learning constantly, and know when to walk away.