Currently, Bitcoin, gold, and crude oil are all on a roller coaster. The core factors to watch are two things: Trump's attitude toward Iran + the Federal Reserve's high interest rate pressure. All the ups and downs are driven by these two.

Bitcoin is completely following geopolitical sentiment: if Trump softens and wants to negotiate, it rises; if he hints at military action, it falls. Institutional ETFs are buying, but large investors are疯狂砸盘 (selling aggressively), combined with leverage liquidations and poor weekend liquidity, causing violent swings back and forth. There is no short-term trend, just a game of news.

Gold's unusual movement: war should normally push prices up, but soaring oil prices boost inflation expectations, prompting the Fed to maintain high interest rates. The dollar strengthens, and gold is unpopular, so after a spike, it drops sharply. It only slightly rebounds during the most tense geopolitical moments.

Crude oil, the most direct geopolitical commodity: when Iran tensions escalate or the Strait faces risks, prices surge; when there are ceasefire talks, prices plummet. It’s entirely priced based on Trump’s words, and the fundamentals can't sustain long-term highs.

In the short term, the market is entirely dictated by Trump and US-Iran tensions. The Fed's high interest rates suppress risk assets. These three factors interact and amplify volatility. Currently, it's best to hold light positions, observe, or make small batch allocations. Avoid leverage and chasing highs or selling lows.