Looking at the recent crash of altcoins, I realize that it can't be explained by surface-level reasons alone. After watching Benjamin Cowen's analysis, I think the core issue is liquidity.

The fundamental point is that this cycle was not an altcoin cycle. Many people remember the altseason from 2020 to 2021, but back then, monetary policy was extremely accommodative. Interest rates were low, and liquidity was abundant. But this time, it's the exact opposite. Quantitative tightening continues, and the dollar remains strong. Liquidity has not truly been eased.

As a result, capital flows have moved in a completely different direction. From altcoins to Bitcoin. Then from Bitcoin to stocks. And from stocks to gold. This isn't just market sentiment; it's a systemic shift where the entire system is seeking safe assets.

The severity of the altcoin crash is actually due to weaknesses that had been building up for years. Looking at the top 100 cryptocurrencies, they've been in a downtrend since 2021. Fewer altcoins are participating in rallies. Liquidity has dried up. So when the large liquidation happened last month, there was no support. The structure was fragile, and it collapsed the moment stress was applied.

Future developments depend on liquidity. If the dollar continues to strengthen, a tight environment will persist, and the pressure for altcoin crashes will remain. But if economic stress prompts policy easing and liquidity significantly loosens, that could trigger the next rotation. Cowen suggests that the next major altcoin boom is more likely between 2027 and 2029.

In other words, cryptocurrencies aren't ending; we just need to wait until the environment changes. Excessive speculative activity will return only when the financial environment becomes more accommodative. Right now, only leaders like Bitcoin are supporting the market. Until that situation changes, the pressure for altcoin crashes is likely to continue.