Retail fear index has been at extreme levels for 38 consecutive days, second only to the 42-day period during the FTX collapse.

However, whales have quietly accumulated 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, worth approximately $18.7 billion. The number of addresses holding over 100 BTC just hit an all-time high of 20,031. Exchange BTC reserves simultaneously hit a 7-year low.

After reviewing history, during COVID the fear index hit 8, and 13 months later BTC surged 1,400%. During the FTX collapse, the index reached 10, with a 158% gain over 12 months. When the fear index drops below 15, the probability of positive returns over the following 30 and 90 days is approximately 80%.

I checked my own positions, then quietly closed the page. #美联储利率决议