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Brothers, let's discuss the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on March 19:
The outcome isn't important; the attitude is what matters.
Since March, the market has already priced in no rate cut, so there won't be significant fluctuations.
Focus on just two points:
1. Dot Plot: The more hawkish, the tighter the liquidity, and the greater the pressure on the crypto market.
2. Powell's Speech: Pay close attention to inflation, oil prices, and the pace of rate cuts—any hawkish signals are bearish.
Currently, the market is pricing in a hawkish expectation, and this situation appears to be a realization of bearish forecasts.
- In line with expectations: initial decline followed by stabilization and rebound
- Hawkish surprise: another wave of selling pressure
Summary: Don't fear hawkishness; fear hawkishness that exceeds expectations.
The crypto market isn't short of stories; it lacks liquidity.
The Federal Reserve is the master switch controlling the "water supply."