Based on the current market environment (geopolitical escalation pushing up oil prices, weakening employment data, rising stagflation risks), Powell is expected to deliver cautious-hawkish remarks following the March 19 meeting. He will likely hold rates steady, but will signal a higher threshold for rate cuts and an extended wait-and-see period through economic projections and language adjustments.

Interest Rate Path (Core Focus): Dispel recent rate-cut expectations. Powell will clearly state "there is no need to rush into rate cuts" and needs to observe the actual impact of tariffs and conflict on the economy. Market focus will shift from "when will rates be cut" to "can rates be cut at all this year?" Meanwhile, the latest dot plot is expected to downgrade the year-end rate-cut forecast from 2 cuts to 1 cut, with even a possibility of "zero cuts."

Economic Conditions (Rare Dilemma): Acknowledge stagflation risks. Facing the contradiction of "high inflation, low growth," Powell will lower GDP growth forecasts and raise inflation expectations. He will emphasize that core PCE remains far from the 2% target (January core PCE year-over-year increase expanded to 3.1%) and express concern about this intractable stagflation environment of "stubborn inflation + slowing employment."

Geopolitics (Wait-and-See Stance): Reiterate "let's wait and see." Drawing on experience managing tariffs last spring, Powell will likely say the conflict's impact on the economy "still requires time to assess," and the Federal Reserve needs more data to confirm the persistence of the oil-price shock. Maintaining a wait-and-see posture amid high uncertainty is the most prudent choice.

Summary: This meeting will be Powell's second-to-last meeting before his term ends. The core of his remarks will be to guide market expectations—even if the economy slows, as long as oil prices don't decline significantly, the Federal Reserve will temporarily refrain from rate cuts.