Citi Lowers Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Targets

Citi lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The bank cited slower-than-expected progress on US digital asset regulation and weak demand environment as reasons.

The bank now forecasts Bitcoin will reach $112,000. The previous target was $143,000. For Ethereum, the forecast was set at $3,175. The prior estimate was $4,304. The two major cryptocurrencies are currently trading at $74,106 and $2,329, respectively.

Citi analyst Alex Saunders said the revisions reflect "declining potential inflows and a slowdown in network activity." He also noted that the likelihood of key legislation passing this year has diminished. Referencing Polymarket data, Saunders stated that the probability of the Clarity Act passing has dropped to 60%. Saunders cautioned: "The window of opportunity is narrowing."

Crypto markets have failed to build momentum since Bitcoin's October peak. Futures liquidations have weakened risk appetite. The asset is trading below key technical levels such as the 200-day moving average (MA).

The analyst wrote: "Concerns about where we are in the halving cycle and Bitcoin trading below technical levels like the 200-day MA are reducing urgency for new investors."

Inflows remain a central driving force. This is particularly happening through exchange-traded funds (ETF). However, inflows have slowed compared to last year. Citi now assumes $10 billion in Bitcoin ETF demand. For Ethereum, it forecasts $2.5 billion. Both are lower than previous estimates. The bank still views inflows as the "most important positive factor."

The bank continues to frame outcomes across a broad range of scenarios. A bear scenario tied to recessionary macro conditions and weak equities markets forecasts Bitcoin at $58,000. For Ethereum, it projects $1,198. In contrast, a bull scenario relies on stronger ultimate investor demand. It also requires broader adoption through financial advisors and brokerage channels.

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