Two Stock-Split Winners: Netflix and ServiceNow Rally Toward 95-103% Gains, Analysts Suggest

When companies execute stock splits like Netflix’s 10-for-1 division (November 2024) and ServiceNow’s 5-for-1 split (December 2024), Wall Street takes notice. These moves typically follow periods of substantial share appreciation, signaling investor confidence in the underlying business. Both names have since declined—Netflix by 43% and ServiceNow by 56% from their peaks—yet prominent analysts see significant recovery potential. Baird analyst Vikram Kesavabhotla targets Netflix at $150 per share, implying 95% upside from depressed levels. Morgan Stanley’s Keith Weiss values ServiceNow at $210, suggesting 103% appreciation. The median consensus among all analysts covering each stock points to 44% and 75% gains respectively, underscoring broad optimism despite current headwinds.

Netflix: Streaming Leader Faces Opportunity Hidden in the Downturn

Netflix maintains an unmatched position in streaming—more subscribers, higher monthly active users, and greater share of total viewing time than competitors (excluding YouTube). The streaming video market itself is projected to expand 22% annually through 2030, per Grand View Research. The company’s edge stems from its proprietary content library: Netflix originals topped seven of the ten most-watched series in 2025, powered by machine learning models that leverage superior user data to guide creative decisions.

The current stock split context reflects earlier momentum, but recent weakness stems from Netflix’s all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio assets, valued at $83 billion including debt. While the market punished the stock over balance-sheet concerns, the deal would grant Netflix intellectual property rights to franchises like DC Universe, Game of Thrones, and Harry Potter. Co-CEO Greg Peters believes this content windfall could drive growth for decades. Risk exists, certainly, but current valuation—30 times forward earnings—appears reasonable against Wall Street’s expectation for 22% annual earnings growth over three years, matching the broader industry expansion rate.

ServiceNow: Enterprise Software Giant Positioned Above AI Disruption Fears

ServiceNow functions as a control tower for enterprise operations, integrating and automating workflows across IT, finance, HR, sales, and customer service departments. Gartner recently recognized the company as a leader in business orchestration and generative AI applications for IT service management. The firm’s dominance in infrastructure optimization and workflow automation has made it indispensable: more than 85% of Fortune 500 companies rely on ServiceNow platforms.

Fourth-quarter results reinforced the company’s strength. Revenue grew 20% to $3.5 billion while adjusted net income increased 26% to $0.92 per diluted share, with management guiding for acceleration in Q1. CEO Bill McDermott emphasized ServiceNow’s competitive positioning: “There is no AI company in the enterprise better positioned for sustainable, profitable revenue growth.” Despite AI code-generation concerns among some investors, Wall Street projects 19% adjusted earnings growth in 2026. At 29 times forward earnings, the current valuation appears compelling for patient capital, particularly given the company’s entrenched customer base and switching costs.

Why Current Valuations Matter More Than Stock Split Mechanics

Forward-looking analysts distinguish between the stock split mechanics—which democratize share ownership and signal management confidence—and underlying business fundamentals. Both companies trade significantly below recent highs because of temporary concerns: Netflix’s debt burden from the Warner Bros. Discovery transaction and ServiceNow’s exposure to AI-driven displacement fears. Historical precedent suggests these concerns have been overestimated; Netflix’s prior inclusion on the Motley Fool’s recommended list in 2004 would have delivered $409,970 on a $1,000 investment by 2026, while Nvidia’s 2005 recommendation yielded $1,174,241 on the same basis.

Neither company will likely deliver its full analyst target in the next twelve months, but both represent attractive entry points for investors with moderate time horizons. The convergence of analyst consensus, reasonable valuations relative to growth expectations, and market share entrenchment makes these stock split stories worth following for those seeking exposure to secular growth trends in digital entertainment and enterprise software.