Weekend Market Analysis:

Bitcoin previously emphasized that breaking below 70,500 indicates a shift from short-term bullish to bearish. Breaking below 70,000 and switching to a short position is advisable. From a trend perspective, the medium-term bullish trend has not been broken, but short-term weakness is evident. It is necessary to hold above 65,000/66,000 to maintain a sideways to slightly bullish stance. Avoid blindly chasing gains at high levels. Many people ignore strategies and keep chasing longs, only to get trapped and experience rollercoaster rides daily, holding onto hope in a bear market. Currently, the crypto market only shows localized movements without a clear trend. If mistakes are made, turn around promptly. Core drivers include: US-Iran risk sentiment + ETF capital outflows + pre-expiry options selling pressure. In terms of operations, short-term trading can be done in the 70,500-66,000 range, buying low and selling high. Do not chase shorts during rapid declines, nor longs during rebounds.
US-Iran and Crypto: Immediate short-term impact, no long-term dominance
1. Direct Impact (Already Occurred)
Conflict escalation → Capital flows into gold/USD → BTC plunges short-term (bottom at 63,000), which is a risk asset sell-off, not a safe-haven rally.
2. Transmission Logic
Unexpected news → Panic selling → Leverage liquidations → Rapid plunge.
Sentiment eases → Rebounds faster than traditional assets, strong recovery potential.
3. Long-term Trend Remains Unchanged
Main drivers are still: Federal Reserve liquidity, ETF capital, regulatory policies. US-Iran is just a short-term volatility amplifier, not changing the bull-bear structure. Therefore, the overall trend remains bearish with oscillations and bottom-building. Do not break 63,000/60,000; buy on dips. Play the waves. If 75,000 is not broken, avoid fighting the bulls. Maintain a 10,000 USD range up and down. Daily trading strategies remain unchanged.
The Tether (USDT) and Bitcoin are synchronized, with resistance at 21,590/22,000. Profits from this wave of shorts are substantial. Two days of consolidation also broke below 2,000. Support levels are at 1,800/1,900. In the short term, continue to buy near 1,900/1,930, with a stop at 1,880.
Silver, gold, and safe-haven assets move inversely to crypto. Silver carries higher risk and is a high-volatility metal among precious metals. Risk control is the top priority in trading.