3.6 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Outlook: How to Position Before Non-Farm Payrolls?

The current market is in a critical window. Although tensions in the Middle East have eased, potential impacts still warrant attention. The real focus today is on the U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls report to be released tonight.

Based on the data released this week, including ADP and initial jobless claims, the overall performance favors the US dollar, which may indicate a high probability that tonight’s non-farm data will exceed expectations. If the data is strong, it will further suppress market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year (especially in June). Once rate cut expectations cool down, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are likely to strengthen, potentially leading to capital outflows from risk assets like Bitcoin, putting downward pressure on prices. Therefore, if you plan to rely on support levels to go long tonight, exercise extreme caution.

Technical Analysis

· Bitcoin (BTC): Recently rebounded from around $63,000 to a high of $74,000 but faced resistance. The daily chart shows a long upper shadow candlestick and a break below the 5-day moving average, indicating the market has entered a high-level correction phase. On the 4-hour chart, the price repeatedly encounters resistance during rebounds, with short-term moving averages turning downward, indicating a bearish trend. The 1-hour chart shows consolidation around $71,000, with bulls and bears in stalemate. Key levels today: watch for gains or losses above $72,000, with support at $69,500 and $68,500.
· ETH (Ethereum): Moves in tandem with the broader market, with successive lower highs during rebounds. The daily chart also faces moving average resistance, and the 4-hour chart shows weak consolidation within a downward channel. Resistance is around $2,110, with support at $1,940–$1,970.

Today’s Trading Strategy

Given the uncertainty of tonight’s data, it is recommended to adopt a range-bound or cautious short-term approach, especially after rebounds or pressure.

BTC Trading Ideas

Short positions: Monitor the $71,200–$72,000 zone for resistance, with a stop-loss above $72,800. Target $69,500–$70,200. If a strong break below $69,500 occurs, consider further downside toward $68,500.
Long positions: Consider buying on dips around $68,500–$69,300, with a stop-loss below $67,700. Target $70,500–$71,300.

ETH Trading Ideas

Short positions: Watch the $2,070–$2,110 zone for resistance, with a stop-loss above $2,150. Target $1,950–$1,980.
Long positions: Consider buying on dips around $1,940–$1,970, with a stop-loss below $1,900. Target $2,010–$2,050.

Risk Management Reminder
The above views are based on current market structure and are for reference only. Markets can change rapidly, especially around the release of tonight’s data, which may lead to increased volatility. Please strictly control your positions and stop-losses, and make rational decisions.