$BTC

Here's why I am staying patient on the macro and what levels are important for the market to show it's hand.
There are two major levels right now: 60k and 74k. I'll go over the implication of each of these.
Let's start with 74k. It's a huge resistance level, and I expect at least a temporary rejection once we get there.
There are many confluences to why this is a big level, but the 2 most important ones are there:
- The range low of the HTF distribution range credited to @Larskooistra_
- It is the .382 fib level of the most recent impulse down.
The combination of these two makes it an extremely important potential rejection level. The range low is logical: claiming it means reclaiming the range.
The .382 is a bit lower timeframe but more important for the immediate term. Why? Because if a trend continues, usually price does not find acceptance above the .382.
The reason for this is that strongly trending moves usually don't have enough strength for a meaningful reversal before trend continuation.
Zooming in a bit, we can see that this trend is clearly down on the timeframe I am talking about:
That means that IF price wants to continue further down within this trend, then most likely it will not go above the .382: 74k.
If it does find acceptance (short moves to .5 are possible) at the .5 or higher, than usually that indicates a range is coming rather than trend continuation.
How do I know? I've gathered statistics on it.
Regardless, that means that if we want price to stop trending down, then this level needs to be reclaimed. This is where the lower TF becomes important.
We are currently putting in a range on the lower timeframe, which is exactly what a retracement of a trend looks like.
I wrote a massive post on that once here:
This is where things get interesting: the .3 deviation level of this range is also right above 74k. That means that as long as we don't break it, we have to assume a local range here.
Which means that a deviation of the current local range highs to 74-75k could be a perfect mid-timeframe mean-reversion play that could potentially lead into a higher timeframe impulse.
I hope you see how things are coming together here. The perfect POI for a HTF swing pivot combined with a lower timeframe mean-reversion play.
It obviously depends greatly on how we approach the level too. But regardless, I think at least a temporary rejection here makes a lot of sense.
Then the importance of 64k: it is the .3 deviation level of the HTF distribution range and it also lies within a massive HTF S/R Flip level ('21 bull high).
This means a couple of things:
1. As long as we don't lose 64k, the HTF distribution range is intact and we need to assume a range until proven otherwise
2. And this would also flip previous resistance into support.
Given the enormous timeframe of the S/R flip zone, this could take a very long time. Breaking this zone took ±240 days last time around with a +50% price range from low to high.
That means that we could easily go quite a bit lower without failing the S/R flip or losing the range. But the main point is this: it can, and probably will, take a lot of time.
So to sum it up, here are the most important takeaways:
1. 74k is currently massive resistance, and if we reject there, there is a good chance to at least have another attempt at the lows
2. But as long as we don't lose 58k (with a monthly close), then the HTF range remains intact and this could still end up as a deviation
3. The best thing to do currently is track the lower timeframes, which is ranging and will explain more about HTF intentions
4. This will likely take quite some time
If I would have to make a bet, it is that 74k will give an initial rejection and that the current 58k low will not hold.
How low that will go, remains to be seen. But if another impulse manifests it would be quite a bit lower.
I will be proven wrong when price reclaims 74k, but given all the timing, I do not see that as a high probability play at this point.