The entire structure of the global financial technical system is shifting: Will Bitcoin enter the "Christmas" or the "Christmas disaster" this year?

When observing recent economic fluctuations, we can see that the structure of the current financial technology system is undergoing profound changes in several key areas simultaneously. From the policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to stimulus packages from major economies, these signals not only impact traditional stocks but also create unique opportunities for digital assets. Especially as global capital flows begin to reorient, Bitcoin, which previously hovered around $90,000, has now adjusted down to $66,340, but the foundational policy infrastructure being rebuilt could open opportunities that the market has not fully recognized.

Fed Policy Shift: Signals from the Beige Book Report

In mid-November, the Beige Book—an economic summary from 12 regions across the U.S.—became a decisive factor in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. According to Polymarket, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December surged from 20% to 86%, an unprecedented change.

This report paints a varied picture of the U.S. economy across regions. In the Northeast, economic activity is expanding modestly, while the Southeast faces greater pressures. The education sector, particularly universities in Boston, reports that students are worried about future employment amid AI development. Most importantly, the weakening of the labor market—about half of the Fed regions indicate that businesses are reducing hiring intentions, with some tending toward “not hiring unless necessary.”

Inflationary Pressures and Economic Inequality

Beneath the negative numbers, businesses face a complex cost crisis. Healthcare costs, as reported, are nearly mentioned by all regions, becoming a long-term, irreversible burden. Some companies are forced to choose between “raising prices” and “shrinking profits.”

However, this reality does not affect society equally. High-income groups continue to maintain impressive luxury retail results, but most American families are tightening their spending. Middle- and low-income households tend to delay or abandon non-essential consumption. The most typical example from car dealerships: when federal tax credits expire, electric vehicle sales plummet, indicating consumers are becoming more cautious.

Global Liquidity Cycle: The “Money Printing” Continues

While the U.S. considers interest rate cuts, other major economies are quietly injecting capital into their systems. Japan announced a stimulus package totaling 11.5 trillion yen (about $73.5 billion), nearly double the previous package. This move has caused the yen to weaken continuously, with Japanese government bond yields soaring to their highest in 20 years.

Markets are uneasy. Investors worry about Japan’s long-term fiscal sustainability, which explains why Asian capital flows are beginning to consider new allocation strategies. Digital assets are now at the forefront of their risk curve, ready for experimentation.

UK Debt Crisis and Lessons on Fiscal Sustainability

If Japan is pumping money, the UK seems to be adding more goods into an already leaking ship. The UK government’s new budget proposal has sparked controversy. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)—a reputable analysis organization—assesses that this is a “spending first, paying later” structure, leaving future governments with the burden.

Extending the freeze on personal income tax thresholds will bring in £12.7 billion by 2030-31. By the end of the fiscal cycle, a quarter of UK workers will be pushed into the 40% tax bracket. Over the past seven months, the UK government has borrowed £117 billion—almost equal to the scale of bank rescues during the 2008 crisis.

As fiscal gaps continue to widen, the pound may become “de facto currency,” acting as a “pressure valve” for the market. This is why increasing numbers of traditional financial analysts are turning to crypto, concluding that when fiat begins to depreciate passively, hard assets—including Bitcoin—are the only assets not subject to arbitrary dilution.

New Financial System Structure and Opportunities for Digital Assets

Overall, the global financial technology system is undergoing three major changes: First, major central banks are shifting from tightening to easing; second, developed economies are increasing fiscal spending to stabilize their economies; third, economic inequality is becoming more apparent, forcing investors to seek assets that are not diluted.

Expectations of Fed rate cuts, improved Asian liquidity, clearer regulations, and returning institutional capital all create a favorable environment for digital assets. Although Bitcoin has adjusted from $90,000 to $66,340, the foundational policy infrastructure being rebuilt could support a long-term upward trend.

Christmas Effect: Opportunity or Risk?

After Thanksgiving, market participants again ask: Is this year’s “Christmas” or “Christmas disaster”? The correlation between the crypto market and U.S. stocks is now nearly 0.8, with both moving almost in sync.

According to Yale Hirsch, founder of Stock Trader’s Almanac, the “Christmas effect” is defined as stock prices rising during the last five trading days of December and the first two days of January. Over 73 years, the S&P 500 has increased in 58 of these years, with nearly 80% probability. More importantly, if the Christmas effect occurs, combined with positive first five trading days of the new year and a positive January indicator, the likelihood of a good new year for U.S. stocks is high.

Strengthening on-chain accumulation signals, combined with low liquidity during holidays, often amplify any upward movement into a “reactionless” surge. Will Bitcoin rise more strongly if U.S. stocks experience the Christmas effect? If stocks do not rise, can Bitcoin still go up on its own? The answers to these questions will determine whether the crypto industry will experience a successful Christmas or a “Christmas disaster.”

One thing is clear: With the global shift in monetary policy and fiscal foundations, digital assets are no longer just fringe phenomena but are becoming part of the new financial system structure. Although the road ahead may be bumpy, the fundamental elements have been rebuilt in a way that favors these assets.