XRP and the Ascending Pattern: Whales Against HODLers in the Battle for $1

XRP is experiencing a critical moment of technical and on-chain tension that will determine its next moves. Since mid-February 2026, the token has depreciated by nearly 13% after being firmly rejected at the $1.67 resistance. As of February 28, updated data shows XRP trading at $1.31, down 3.42% in 24 hours, dangerously close to the lower edge of an ascending pattern that threatens to break. Market dynamics reveal intense confrontation: while large wallets dumped about 50 million tokens (valued at $75 million) during the recent recovery attempt, long-term holders are desperately trying to absorb this supply, increasing their positions by 17%. The question remains whether the critical support at $1.26 will hold or if the breakout of the ascending pattern will trigger a fall toward the psychological level of $1.00.

A Fragile Uptrend and Signs of Weakness

XRP’s chart setup shows signals that cannot be ignored. Since early February, the token has been forming a clearly bearish pattern indicating exhaustion of strength.

The ascending pattern that was forming has suffered a critical breach. A dip below the lower trendline could trigger a 26% correction, with the $1.00 target firmly on sellers’ radar. On the 4-hour and 12-hour charts, a hidden bearish divergence has emerged: RSI made a higher high while price made a lower high. This classic mismatch signaled that the recent rally was losing internal momentum, culminating in a sharp rejection at $1.67. The candle formed at this level showed a particularly long upper shadow, confirming that aggressive sellers continue to defend this resistance with determination.

50 Million Outflow: Whales’ Distribution vs. Buyers’ Absorption

On-chain data reveal a story of two opposing forces fighting for control.

Large wallets—those holding between 10 million and 1 billion XRP—executed a coordinated outflow: 50 million tokens were dumped during the latest rally attempt. This massive influx of supply overwhelmed the demand available at that moment. In response, long-term holders tried to “buy the dip,” increasing their total holdings from 127 million to 150 million XRP. This 17% increase is significant but still 55% below the peak accumulation seen on February 1. This discrepancy suggests that current buyers’ security levels are not yet sufficient to reverse the downtrend with force.

Critical Levels: The Last Bastion at $1.26

XRP is now testing its “last line of defense” as it approaches a large cluster of buy entry points.

The $1.26 support zone is where approximately 442 million XRP were accumulated between $1.27 and $1.28. This is the most relevant cost concentration visible on the chart across all resolutions. If the bulls fail to defend this critical level, nearly half a billion coins could face significant unrealized losses, potentially triggering a cascade of defensive sell-offs. A break downward would target subsequent levels at $1.16 and then $1.06, completing the ascending pattern and possibly touching the psychological level of $1.00. To invalidate this bearish scenario, XRP would need to recover and establish support at $1.48, followed by a consistent and sustained close above $1.67.

What’s at Stake: Certainty and Uncertainty

The technical divergences observed do not guarantee specific future movements, as patterns like the ascending triangle and bearish divergences are probabilistic by nature. XRP remains an extremely volatile asset; current dynamics are subject to rapid and significant changes. Failing to defend $1.26 could result in substantial capital losses for leveraged positions. Therefore, thorough personal research (DYOR) and consulting a financial professional before making any significant investment decisions involving Ripple or XRP are always recommended.

The central question remains: will the holders fully absorb the whale supply, or will the ascending pattern collapse under pressure, leading to further decline around the $1.26 floor and possibly toward the psychological target of $1.00?