Will shipping stocks continue to rise? Investment prospects and risk analysis for 2026

The shipping industry is the lifeblood of the global economy, carrying trillions of dollars in trade volume every year. In recent years, shipping stocks have experienced rollercoaster swings from peak to trough, leaving many investors wondering, “Will shipping stocks go up again?” This article will analyze the future prospects of shipping stocks to help investors understand the cyclical nature of this industry.

Current Situation: Why Did Shipping Stocks Fall from the Peak?

The core business of shipping companies is the transportation of cargo and bulk commodities by sea. As an essential pillar of international trade, the shipping industry directly connects global supply chains, handling raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods. In the era of globalization, its importance is irreplaceable.

However, after a strong rebound post-2020, shipping stocks’ fortunes took a sharp turn downward. The world’s largest shipping company, Maersk, hit a new high in early 2022 but has since lost over 60% of its market value. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd AG’s decline is even more dramatic, retracing nearly 70% from its late 2022 peak. Behind this stock price collapse is a significant deterioration in performance.

For example, Maersk’s quarterly revenue peaked at $22.767 billion in 2022 but has since declined steadily. By Q2 2023, revenue fell below $13 billion, less than 60% of the peak. Profitability has also plummeted—mid-2022, quarterly net profit was as high as $8.879 billion, but by Q2 2023, it had dropped to $1.453 billion, an over 83% decline.

This cyclical fluctuation is not new. Shipping stock performance is highly correlated with the global economic environment. During periods of economic growth, international trade is active, demand for goods is strong, and shipping stocks tend to perform well. Conversely, during recessions or heightened uncertainty, trade slows, demand drops, and shipping stocks come under pressure.

Looking at the development trajectory since 2010, the industry was severely impacted by global economic uncertainties and overcapacity during 2015-2016; the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 nearly pushed many shipping giants to bankruptcy; subsequent global recovery brought a strong rebound; but after 2022, this upward momentum quickly exhausted.

Four Key Variables That Will Decide the Future: The Answer to “Will Shipping Stocks Rise Again?”

Whether shipping stocks can rebound depends on the evolution of several key factors.

First, global economic growth is the most direct driver. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat inflation have pushed the federal funds rate to historic highs, which has suppressed U.S. economic expansion and dragged down global growth. As inflation gradually normalizes, the Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates. Lower rates will create conditions for global economic recovery, reactivating commodity trade, which will be a major positive for shipping stocks.

Second, the restructuring of the global supply chain is changing the landscape of the shipping industry. Recent intensification of US-China trade tensions has accelerated the localization and nearshoring of supply chains in Western countries. Many manufacturing activities are shifting from China to Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other regions. This trend has a dual impact: demand for routes connecting China with North America and Europe may decline, while new routes between North America and Southeast Asia or South America could increase. Companies heavily reliant on trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic routes (like Taiwan’s Evergreen and Yang Ming) face greater pressure, whereas companies with more balanced route networks (like Maersk) are less affected.

Third, energy costs directly impact shipping companies’ profit margins. The uncertainties caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts are pushing up international oil prices, increasing fuel costs for shipping companies and squeezing overall industry profitability. How geopolitical developments unfold will largely determine the direction of shipping costs.

Fourth, environmental transformation is a long-term challenge and a key factor in competitive differentiation. Global carbon neutrality goals are driving the shipping industry to adopt cleaner fuels and technologies. Large shipping companies, leveraging economies of scale, can more cost-effectively “green” their fleets, gaining a competitive edge. Smaller and medium-sized firms face higher compliance costs. Investing in new ships or retrofitting existing vessels to meet environmental standards requires huge capital, and larger firms are better equipped to bear these costs.

Comparing Major Global Shipping Companies: Which Are Worth Watching?

Many large global shipping companies are private firms (such as Switzerland’s Mediterranean Shipping Company S.A. and France’s CMA CGM Group), making them inaccessible to ordinary investors. Therefore, the following are major shipping stocks listed on U.S. and Taiwan stock markets:

Maersk (Pink Sheet: AMKBY)

Founded in 1904, Maersk is the undisputed leader in global shipping. Operating in 130 countries, with annual cargo transport valued at about $675 billion, employing around 76,000 staff, and an annual container capacity of 4.18 million TEUs. As an industry leader, Maersk’s scale advantages are significant, giving it the strongest resilience against cyclical fluctuations and environmental transformation.

Hapag-Lloyd (Pink Sheet: HPGLY)

Founded in 1970, Hapag-Lloyd is Germany’s largest and the second-largest global shipping company by market value. It operates in approximately 600 ports worldwide, serving 130 countries, with a container capacity of about 1.8 million TEUs. As a representative of European shipping, Hapag-Lloyd maintains balanced capacity across multiple routes.

OOCL (Pink Sheet: OROVY)

Founded by Chinese entrepreneur Tung Hsiao-yun in 1947, OOCL entered container shipping in 1969 and reorganized as Orient Overseas Container Line. The company owns over 150 ships with a capacity exceeding 10 million tons, making it one of the world’s top seven shipping firms. Although acquired by COSCO in 2017 for $6.3 billion, its stock still trades on the U.S. pink sheet market, with about 130 offices in over 100 major cities globally.

Evergreen (Taiwan Stock Code: 2603)

Evergreen is a leading Taiwanese shipping company, mainly operating routes from East Asia to the Americas, the Southern Hemisphere, Northern Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean. It owns over 200 container ships with a total capacity of about 1.668 million TEUs, serving 240 ports worldwide. However, its heavy reliance on trans-Pacific routes makes it more vulnerable to supply chain adjustments.

Yang Ming (Taiwan Stock Code: 2609)

Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation, established in 1972, is another major Taiwanese shipping firm. It serves over 70 countries through 170 ports worldwide, with container terminal operations in the Netherlands, Belgium, the U.S., and Taiwan. It employs over 5,000 staff and has a capacity of about 705,000 TEUs. Like Evergreen, its dependence on specific routes poses risks.

Differentiation Strategies: The Correct Investment Approach for Shipping Stocks

Based on the above analysis, investors should adopt the following strategies to manage risks and seize opportunities in shipping stocks:

Prioritize large shipping companies. Industry giants with market caps over $10 billion benefit from scale effects, better absorbing costs during downturns. They also have stronger financing capabilities and are better positioned to invest in environmental upgrades. Smaller firms are more vulnerable to cyclical swings.

Avoid over-concentration in specific routes. While companies like Evergreen and Yang Ming are quality firms, their heavy dependence on trans-Pacific routes limits growth amid supply chain de-China-ification. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, with more diversified route networks, are better equipped to withstand regional risks.

Pay attention to fleet age. Newly built or recently retrofitted ships are better positioned to meet environmental standards, reducing future compliance costs and risks. Investors should favor companies with relatively young fleets.

Implement a phased, long-term holding strategy. Shipping stocks are cyclical assets; the best approach is to buy in stages at or near cycle lows. When industry indices hit historic lows with extremely cheap valuations, it’s an ideal entry point. Conversely, at cycle peaks, gradually reduce holdings and wait for the next opportunity. This “buy low, sell high” approach aligns well with the industry’s cyclical nature.

Overall Outlook: The Long-Term Logic of Investing in Shipping Stocks

Whether shipping stocks will rise in the future ultimately depends on whether the global economy can return to growth. In the short term, a rate-cutting cycle is expected to gradually unfold by 2026, creating conditions for economic recovery and benefiting shipping stocks. In the medium term, supply chain restructuring will continue to impact performance, leading to divergence among companies. In the long run, environmental transformation will reshape industry dynamics, further strengthening the competitive advantage of large firms.

Therefore, the answer to “Will shipping stocks go up again?” is: Yes, but only if you choose the right companies and timing. Investors should stay attentive to global economic trends, be prepared to buy during cycle lows, select large, risk-resistant, well-diversified companies, and adopt a long-term holding mindset. Avoid companies overly dependent on single routes and with weak risk resilience. By understanding the cyclical logic, investing in shipping stocks can still yield substantial returns during the upcoming recovery cycle.