Circle and NVIDIA's earnings report will be announced tonight. Can AI narratives once again "support" the crypto market?

On the evening of February 25th Beijing time to the early morning of February 26th, the global capital markets will witness the performance reports of two heavyweight players. Circle, the issuer of the US dollar stablecoin USDC, will release its latest earnings before the US stock market opens; while chip giant NVIDIA will announce its highly anticipated quarterly results after the market close on February 25th (5:00 AM Beijing time on February 26th).

At this point of heightened macro volatility and fragile crypto market sentiment, the simultaneous release of these two earnings reports is not an isolated event. The market is broadly focused on how these results will spill over into risk assets. Investors are assessing the interplay between AI capital expenditure cycles, semiconductor profit outlooks, and stablecoin business growth. The earnings reports from Circle and NVIDIA may serve as an important window into the resonance between the tech and crypto markets.

Circle Earnings: Stablecoin Breakthrough Amid Rising Interest Rate Headwinds

As a core bridge connecting the crypto world and traditional finance, Circle’s performance not only impacts its stock price but also directly reflects the health of the stablecoin market.

Key financial outlook:

According to market consensus, Circle’s performance this quarter faces significant pressure. Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.35, a sharp decline from $0.64 in Q3. Behind this downward expectation is market concern over Circle’s reliance on reserve income models. As the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, the interest income generated by assets backing USDC is being eroded, posing a substantial macro headwind to Circle’s profitability.

USDC Market Share and Growth Opportunities

From the data, although USDC’s circulating supply has rebounded to about $74.7 billion, its market share within the overall stablecoin sector has shown signs of decline, dropping from 28.9% in Q3 to around 27.9%. Tether still dominates with nearly 70% market share.

Investors’ focus will be on whether Circle can demonstrate growth in non-interest income. A new partnership with prediction market Polymarket, which is migrating to native USDC, is seen as a potential catalyst that could further boost USDC’s market cap. Additionally, progress on its institutional Layer 1 network, Arc, is crucial—its testnet has processed over 150 million transactions. Whether this can translate into real-world applications will be key to assessing its long-term growth narrative.

Market Sentiment and Stock Price Dynamics

It’s worth noting that Circle’s stock price, after an initial surge post-IPO, has experienced a significant pullback, with current levels well below its June 2025 peak. Meanwhile, hedge funds have built sizable short positions, making it one of the more shorted crypto-related stocks. Matrixport analysis indicates that this high short interest creates a delicate game ahead of earnings: since expectations are not overly high, a strong actual performance could trigger short covering and amplify a rally.

NVIDIA Earnings: A Market Barometer for AI Sentiment and Volatility

If Circle represents the “blood flow” (liquidity) of the crypto world, NVIDIA stands for the “engine” driving this round of tech bull market. Its earnings are not only a litmus test for the AI supply chain but also have a profound impact on the sentiment of the high-beta crypto markets.

Earnings Expectations and Historical Patterns

NVIDIA’s guidance for Q4 revenue is around $65 billion (±2%), with GAAP gross margin expected at approximately 74.5%. While the market generally anticipates strong performance, there remains concern on Wall Street that “good news may be bad news.” Historical data shows that in the past four quarters, despite three beating earnings estimates, the stock often declined the day after earnings release. Options pricing indicates potential volatility of up to 6% this week, reflecting intense market debate.

The “Backstop” Logic for Crypto Markets

Historically, NVIDIA’s better-than-expected results have boosted global risk appetite and improved sentiment during phases of crypto market correction. This transmission is not direct capital flow but occurs through the shared “AI narrative.”

In the current macro environment, crypto assets are being re-priced as high-beta growth assets. If NVIDIA delivers a strong report and provides robust capital expenditure guidance, it will reaffirm the health of AI hardware demand, boosting confidence across the tech sector. This risk appetite revival often spills over into Bitcoin and mainstream cryptocurrencies, providing an emotional “backstop.”

Resonance and Game Theory: How Will Crypto Markets Respond to the Double Play?

At this critical juncture, the simultaneous earnings reports from Circle and NVIDIA align with two key dimensions the crypto market cares about most: internal liquidity and external macro sentiment.

Can the AI Narrative Once Again Provide Support?

It depends on NVIDIA’s “performance.” If NVIDIA exceeds expectations significantly and alleviates concerns about slowing AI capital expenditure, the “AI narrative” could once again serve as a strong market booster. As some discussions on Gate Square suggest, with AI agents and machine-to-machine trading scenarios being explored, digital assets like Bitcoin could potentially become a store of value within the AI economy in the future, extending the “AI backstop” story for crypto markets. A strong post-earnings rally in NVIDIA could lift global risk assets and help crypto break out of recent consolidation.

Can Circle Surprise to the Upside?

Compared to NVIDIA, Circle’s earnings are more like a “potential mine” or “surprise package.” With high short interest, as long as Circle can demonstrate progress in its payments business to offset rate headwinds and maintain USDC’s market share, it could trigger a wave of short covering. As of press time, crypto concept stocks are already broadly higher in pre-market trading, with Circle up over 2%. If this momentum continues after the official release, it could directly boost the prices of stablecoin-related ecosystem tokens.

As of February 25, data from Gate Trading shows the market is currently in a typical “earnings wait-and-see” mode. Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range of $65,000 to $67,000, with lower trading volume than recent days. Ethereum is holding just above $1,900. In derivatives markets, funding rates remain at multi-year lows, indicating that leverage traders are cautious—neither aggressively long before earnings nor blindly short amid high uncertainty. This suggests the market is waiting for a clear external signal to determine its direction.

Conclusion

Tonight and tomorrow morning, Circle and NVIDIA’s earnings will be released sequentially. The former relates to the crypto world’s “self-sustaining” and competitive landscape, while the latter will influence external macro sentiment.

For investors, this is not just about two companies’ earnings; it’s a critical moment to assess the strength of the “AI narrative” and “stablecoin growth” logic. In a context of high short interest and fragile market sentiment, any upside surprise could be amplified into a rebound driver; conversely, underperformance could lead to more intense volatility. Regardless of the outcome, the resonance between tech and crypto will provide new insights within the next 24 hours.