Why is the Bitcoin bull market slowing down? How institutional funding is reshaping market dynamics

As of February 25, 2026, Gate data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $65,460.4, up +3.26% in the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.31 trillion and a market share stable at 55.37%. Although the price has retreated from its all-time high of $126,080, market structure is undergoing profound changes. This bull market for Bitcoin is exhibiting a rhythm unlike previous cycles: slower, steadier, and more enduring. Behind this “slow bull” phenomenon is the shift from retail frenzy to institutional accumulation, which is now the main driving force in the market.

Quantitative Shift: Greater Force Needed to Turn the Big Wheel

The expansion of Bitcoin’s market cap is the primary reason for the slowdown in its bull market pace. Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap has reached $1.31 trillion, with nearly 19.99 million BTC in circulation. Unlike earlier periods with smaller market caps, significant percentage movements now require massive inflows of capital.

In the past, relatively small retail investments could trigger sharp price swings. Today, Bitcoin has become a key member of the global macro asset class. According to Gate data, its 24-hour trading volume is $1.25 billion, indicating a significant increase in market depth. To move this “big wheel,” it requires large institutional capital, which itself enters and exits slowly and steadily, rather than through impulsive surges.

Supply Scarcity: Halving Effects Diminish, Long-term Holders Lock In

Bitcoin’s supply structure is also changing. Although the fourth halving has occurred, over 94% of Bitcoin has already been mined, so the impact of reduced new supply on the circulating supply is relatively weaker. More importantly, the market’s dominant forces are shifting from short-term speculators to long-term holders.

Public companies like Strategy, Bitcoin ETFs, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate treasuries are becoming steadfast institutional accumulators. Strategy’s holdings have increased to about 717,722 BTC, with an average purchase cost of approximately $76,020 per BTC. These holders tend to “buy and hold” or “hold long-term,” viewing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. This accumulation mindset effectively absorbs selling pressure, reducing the actual circulating supply and lowering market volatility.

Nature of Capital: Institutional “Deep Waters” vs Retail “Tsunami”

The core feature of this bull market is the shift in marginal pricing power. In previous cycles, retail investors often entered en masse driven by FOMO, pushing prices to a peak quickly, then crashing. This cycle, however, is leaning toward regulated derivatives markets like CME and spot ETFs.

Institutional capital (such as pension funds, hedge funds, family offices) has a different logic from retail investors. They focus on risk parity and long-term holding, establishing core positions via spot ETFs and hedging with derivatives, rather than chasing short-term gains. Gate data shows that despite prices retreating from historical highs, there has been no panic sell-off like in past bear markets, thanks to the stabilizing role of institutional funds. They act like “deep waters,” flowing in steadily and stably, dampening market volatility.

Current Positioning: 60% of the BTC Cycle

Based on on-chain data and market structure analysis, many industry observers believe we are in approximately the 60% phase of this Bitcoin cycle. This indicates the market is not at the end of a bull run but transitioning from “mid-cycle correction” to “late-cycle expansion.”

From a macro liquidity perspective, the tightening cycle has ended, but large-scale liquidity release has not yet occurred. The market is in a “transition window.” During this phase, sentiment often diverges, weak positions are cleared, and a solid foundation is laid for the next upward move. The current consolidation between $62,501 and $66,310.7 reflects this structural adjustment. Unlike previous cycles driven by retail “parabolic rises and crashes,” the current market, led by institutions, shows “support during declines and a slow climb during rallies.”

Conclusion: The Path of a Mature Market

In summary, the slowdown of this Bitcoin bull market is not a sign of exhaustion but a sign of market maturation. Institutional accumulation replacing retail frenzy makes the market structure more resilient. While short-term prices will still be influenced by macro factors and leverage, this “slow bull” led by institutions is likely to extend the cycle’s duration.

For market participants, understanding this structural shift is crucial. The past pattern of rapid asset doubling is becoming history. The new paradigm is driven by professional institutions, more closely linked to global macro assets, with lower volatility and more sustainable growth. Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative retail-driven asset into a recognized store of value and collateral within the global financial system.