Holiday balance is insufficient; it's time to refocus! Pre-holiday review and post-holiday outlook are here!

【Like and Follow, Limit Up Can’t Stop It】[Taoguba]
【Cheer and Tip, Holdings Keep Rising】

The long Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end. I believe everyone has enjoyed good food, drinks, and rest during the break. Tomorrow is the last day of the holiday, so it’s time to settle down and prepare for the first week of the Year of the Horse after the holiday. After such a long break, I wonder if everyone still remembers what happened in the market before the holiday? If not, that’s okay. Today, let’s review the market through this weekly recap. First, let’s revisit the thoughts from the week before the holiday.

1. Review of Pre-Holiday Strategy

Monday:
Hangdian Co.: Focused on last Friday, but today reduced attention on the board, then broke the limit and fell back, hitting a new intraday low, so we unfollowed.
Analysis: Last Friday’s closing auction was very impressive, but Hengdian’s drop was not as strong. However, on Monday, Hengdian opened at only 7 points, worse than Hengdian’s 9+ points, which was a bit disappointing. Considering the weaker opening, the rise was a trigger to unfollow, so we reduced attention on the board. Later, it broke the limit and fell back to a new intraday low, so we unfollowed again.

Tongding Interconnection: Fell below the intraday moving average in the afternoon, unfollowed.
Analysis: It was much weaker than the sector, so I decided to take profits and wait. Although it rebounded after testing the 10-day line on Friday, it still underperformed the sector and couldn’t hold the rise.

Han Jian Heshan: Focused on Han Jian Heshan at the end of the day.
Analysis: As the first stock to break the 5-limit suppression after a long time, I still respect it.

Tuesday:
Han Jian Heshan: Opened with a rise turning red, then dropped to green, retested the intraday moving average but couldn’t break through, so unfollowed.
Analysis: It was a focus point at the end of yesterday, mainly to see if it could turn from weak to strong and resolve the divergence. No sign of strength today; the opening was briefly red but quickly turned green then dropped again, so the false signal of strength was confirmed. Just find a good position to unfollow.

Hua Ce Film & TV: Broke through and was followed.
Analysis: On that day, sectors like aerospace photovoltaic were making way for new themes like SD2.0. Although there was divergence after a high open, after Chinese Online’s rebound, the sector fermented and peaked. Following some breakout stocks for arbitrage was possible, even though I didn’t catch the trade finally.

Wednesday:
Hua Ce Film & TV: Fell below cost line, unfollowed.
Analysis: Hengdian’s auction started to hit the delete button, and many stocks in the sector followed, which was ridiculous. The final arbitrage was unsuccessful, and I felt annoyed.

Hangdian Co.: Broke new highs then retreated, so paid attention.
Analysis: The 10cm group, with a late rebound and a 2-limit rebound, was quite recognizable. It was still holding after being hit on Tuesday, and today it hit a new high. It’s typical of the stubbornness of the 10cm group, so I trusted the early signal and bought in.

Jiecheng Co.: Near midday, around the zero line, paid attention.
Analysis: As the only stock in this wave of AI drama with full turnover and a 20cm second limit, it was the strongest in the sector divergence. It’s a matter of belief—if you believe the drama won’t continue diverging for two days, then Jiecheng, with the strongest recognition and support during divergence, can be considered.

Thursday:
Hangdian Co.: No change throughout the day.
Analysis: Many asked why I could hold after a limit down. It started on January 30, the first day of the metal retreat. That day marked the end of a cycle, so it’s worth noting. The strong stocks like Longfei Fiber, Litong Electronics, Tongding Interconnection all started their first limit on Jan 30. Because of this, I kept the position initially, and when it hit the limit down, I didn’t panic. I thought some funds might jump in, especially since it opened with a limit down, influenced by Hengdian, Julli, GCL-Poly. After the high-positioned group died, Hangdian became the only new low-positioned stock with a small group. I wondered if it would also die, but later confirmed some funds supported it, and it broke through the intraday moving average with good momentum, so I held until the close. No abnormality was found, so no need to unfollow.

Jiecheng Co.: Jumped in the afternoon, increased attention, closed with a red finish.
Analysis: It opened with a surge, hitting a new high, indicating that Jiecheng is difficult to follow the 20cm group trend, so it might be trending. If it’s trending, it probably waits at high levels for the 5-day line, then uses the future moving average method combined with intraday support to try rolling.

Friday:
Hangdian Co.: Opened high, then fell back sharply, retested the intraday moving average, unfollowed.
Analysis: Yesterday, it perfectly controlled the divergence, so today, without pressure from divergence, it should show strength. It opened high, then was pushed down, turning red—this is the first unfollow point. If missed, the rapid decline makes unfollowing difficult, but no need to panic; after the decline, a rebound near the intraday moving average is the second unfollow point.

Zhangyue Technology: Focused on the board.
Analysis: Today is the last day before the holiday. Due to external market crashes, panic sentiment was high, and the close confirmed a small dip. It’s the last day of the holiday, the second day of the retreat, the dip point, and the second attempt to break the 5-limit suppression—these four factors suggest following.

Dawei Technology: Focus at 2%.
Analysis: This is purely a bullish view on the computing power model outside trading. Within the model, it needs to confirm with a rebound, but Dawei didn’t rebound, so no focus here.

Solid固集创: Fell back near the opening price in the afternoon, focus.
Analysis: It’s been a while since a 20cm group candidate appeared. After two limits, Solid固集创 broke the limit, then stabilized at a new high, and on Friday, it hit a new high again. Although it retreated after a surge, it still shows the characteristics of a 20cm group. It can be watched for feedback. The close was still positive, which is good. If no second consecutive decline, continue to treat as a group.

2. Review of the Week Before the Holiday

To do well after the holiday, we must understand what happened before the market closed. The long holiday has blurred memories? No worries, let’s revisit the market in the week before the holiday.

Monday:
Last Friday, the market bottomed out and rebounded broadly, but no clear direction emerged, mainly low volume. If no major change, the market likely continues rotation and grouping. On Monday, with the index increasing volume and returning above all moving averages, and the emergence of SeeDance2.0 driving sectors like film & TV and AI drama, there was a hint of market change. Meanwhile, sectors like aerospace photovoltaic were making way for new themes like SD2.0. Although some stocks surged on divergence, the overall market was still a broad rally over 4000, so new themes appeared but might be short-lived. The market continued to rotate around existing sectors.

Tuesday:
SeeDance2.0 boosted AI drama and film & TV sectors for sustained strength. Meanwhile, old sectors like power, photovoltaic, AI hardware, and aerospace (e.g., Julli) weakened, giving way to SeeDance2.0. Despite some sectors weakening, AI-related directions like computing power and optical fiber still performed well. Longfei Fiber hit the limit again; Wangsu, despite a high top, retreated but held support after turning green. The rotation was increasingly focused on AI.

Wednesday:
The index finally broke below 2 trillion, hitting the lowest volume in two months, related to pre-holiday cash-out. AI drama and film & TV sectors peaked for two days, with many stocks hitting the limit, indicating divergence. Hengdian Film & TV opened flat then hit the limit down, marking the start of the divergence. Some stocks like Bona Film, Fengyu Zhu, and Yili Media were eliminated, while Huanyue Century and Decai Holdings advanced. 20cm stocks like Rongxin Culture suffered negative feedback; Chinese Online also declined sharply. Only Jiecheng, with full turnover and a second limit, held relatively well, closing with a red candle. The divergence in AI drama and film & TV sectors was significant. Other old sectors showed rotation: metals, chemicals, aerospace, etc., with some stocks rising and falling sharply. Notably, Tongding Interconnection, also a fiber stock, hit a high then retreated sharply, foreshadowing Thursday’s action.

Thursday:
The last day of cash-out before the holiday. The market should have shrunk volume further, but instead, it increased, and the index continued to rise, with the ChiNext index soaring. The only flaw was the Shanghai Composite’s daily doji star, breaking the streak of consecutive positive days.

Regarding Tongding Interconnection, it was a foreshadowing: while aerospace stocks like Julli and GCL-Poly fell sharply, Tongding only retested the 10-day line and then surged to the limit, showing a different reaction. These stocks’ different responses after the same high retest indicated that only the core AI-related directions like computing power and optical fiber continued to strengthen, while others started to fade. Wangu, Litong, and Changfei rose steadily, but the momentum slowed. AI drama and film & TV sectors, after divergence at open, showed no signs of recovery, with negative feedback dominating. If no rebound by Friday, the trend might fade. Overall, Thursday’s market felt like a focus on AI, with a potential for a year-end rally, and many held stocks over the holiday.

Friday:
However, overnight, sentiment turned sharply negative due to external crashes, causing many to panic and sell holdings.
Old sectors like photovoltaic, aerospace, and chemicals collapsed. Julli hit the limit down again; GCL-Poly continued to fall after Thursday’s negative feedback; Hangdian, after avoiding divergence on Thursday, also dropped to limit down without external pressure. Meanwhile, previously strong sectors like Wangu, Changfei, and Litong also plummeted. Stocks like Tongding Interconnection, which had surged on Thursday, also hit the limit down. Some stocks like CPO’s Guangku and Tianfu, which hit new highs on Thursday, also fell sharply.

Conversely, the divergence in AI drama and film & TV sectors began to show signs of recovery, with copyright-related stocks like Zhangyue and Bona leading the rebound. Zhangyue quickly absorbed divergence and rose, but the rebound was not strong enough to hit the limit. Hengdian and Bona almost reached the limit-up but lacked the strength for a full breakout. This limited the overall rebound. Meanwhile, old sectors stagnated, and the new AI drama & film & TV sector’s rebound was weaker than expected. Some long-term stagnant sectors like advanced packaging, military, and autonomous driving showed some movement but lacked strength. Ultimately, the holiday-held funds were scared out, leaving the market with few participants, mostly waiting for the post-holiday rebound.

Summary: On Monday and Tuesday, new directions emerged at low levels, old sectors gradually ceded ground, but the new sectors didn’t seize the opportunity to rise, instead logically favoring the AI-related sectors like computing power, which strengthened for two days. The market, initially focusing on computing power to cross the holiday, was disrupted by external crashes, causing holiday-held funds to become cautious. As a result, all sectors weakened further, with no sector showing strong performance.

However, the last day before the holiday, AI drama and computing power remained the most promising directions for post-holiday expectations. Although the rebound of AI drama was weaker than expected, there’s still a chance for further strengthening after the holiday. The rhythm of computing power is just divergence, with expectations of a rebound afterward, making it the most worth关注的方向。

3. Outlook After the Holiday

After the above review, everyone should have a general understanding of what happened before the market closed. Now, let’s discuss the market expectations for after the holiday, especially on the first day back. The first day after the holiday will inevitably be influenced by various news during the long break. I’ll highlight a few key points I think are important or of interest.

1. Robots

This is a popular topic. The Spring Festival Gala’s robot martial arts performance was very smooth, showing significant technological progress. But I think this might just be a high open, lasting at most a day, which is not a big opportunity. The hype from 0 to 1 last year has already played out. The next step from 1 to 2, 3, or more, depends on mass production. Think back to the hype around new energy vehicles: initially just concept stocks, then actual production from 0 to 1, and finally from 1 to 100 for mass production—this is the last big wave. Robots are similar; the final big wave depends on when mass production is achieved, from 1 to 100, otherwise it’s just technological iteration with limited impact.

2. Zhipu AI

Actually, Zhipu AI started rising before the holiday. During the break, Hong Kong stocks opened on Feb 20, and Zhipu surged 42%. The post-holiday impact on the AI sector is positive, but it’s hard to say which branch benefits most—hardware chips, computing power, or application deployment.

3. OpenAI Cuts Computing Budget Significantly

This was announced on Feb 21. OpenAI plans to reduce total computing expenditure to $600 billion by 2030, compared to $1.4 trillion over the next 8 years announced earlier. The timeframes differ, so some online comparisons suggest the cut of $800 billion is illogical. Everyone knows computing power is insufficient, and its development is a key strategic deployment for our country. Still, this news may cause some market doubts about demand.

Pre-holiday, the computing power sector already showed divergence. If, after the holiday, the market reacts with collective panic, it could be a good low-entry point.

4. Spring Festival Box Office

As of 6 pm on Feb 22, the box office exceeded 5 billion yuan. Not much compared to last year’s blockbuster Nezha 2. Expectations are lowered. The last day before the holiday saw some performance in AI drama and film & TV, mainly a correction after two days of decline. The logic still favors AI drama. Since expectations for this Spring Festival are modest, post-holiday, the focus will likely remain on SeeDance2.0.

Other news like Trump’s tariffs violations or continued chip price hikes also have positive effects, but their impact size is uncertain. That’s all for the news analysis. Now, my thoughts on the first day after the holiday.

First, about the limit-up stocks: as a sentiment indicator, before the holiday, stocks with more than 5 consecutive limits were rare. The only one was Han Jian Heshan, which after 5 limits, faced negative feedback. Zhangyue Tech, as the last high-flyer before the holiday and the second to attempt a 5-limit break, also tried but failed. So, even with 4 limits, it was a key stock to watch.

Furthermore, before the holiday, nearly 4,000 stocks declined, and data like the limit-up index and the overall index indicated a second-day retreat. So, the post-holiday market is likely the third day of retreat.

Han Jian Heshan’s performance is crucial. It’s a sentiment anchor and can lead a direction. If it successfully advances to 6 limits after the holiday, sectors like AI drama and media may attract funds again, and positive feedback could expand further. Conversely, if it fails, it indicates continued weakness, and the third day of retreat is a critical point—possibly an opportunity to act on Wednesday.

Regarding sector choices before the market opens, focus remains on the sectors with the best continuity and profitability before the holiday—like computing power and optical fiber. Divergence after the holiday might lead to collective panic, which could be an opportunity for low-entry rebounds. Sectors without strong pre-holiday performance but with positive news during the break, like robots and storage chips, should be approached cautiously.

Finally, using Fibonacci sequences to predict the duration of this price increase cycle:

Aerospace ended on Jan 13, and the high-volatility sectors like metals also started on Jan 13. Metals retreated after 13 trading days on Jan 30, but the upward trend continued via computing power and optical fiber. The high-volatility phase lasted 24 trading days, ending before the holiday. If we consider a small theme cycle of 34 days, the rebound could last until around March 9. So, before March 9, each divergence point in the price increase line suggests a potential rebound, but the trend will shift from trend-based to game-based, requiring more precise rhythm control.

That’s it for this week’s review. Creating content is not easy. Thanks to everyone who liked, supported, and commented daily. If this article helps you, please support with likes, tips, and encouragement!

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Two consecutive weekly recap posts with over 7 tips and featured posts, hoping this first recap of the Year of the Horse can continue the momentum! Thanks for your support!

Additionally, I will be moving house next week. Moving isn’t the end; there are many miscellaneous things to handle, like registering the kids for a new kindergarten, household registration issues, and even changing the license for the electric scooter. So, I might not be able to monitor the market continuously or reply promptly in the comment area. Hope everyone understands!

【Statement】: All stocks mentioned in this article are for observation and research exchange only, not investment advice. The stock market involves risks, please trade cautiously!