2.24 New Year Red Envelope Market Turns into Price-Increasing Line Fan, a signal awaiting the market consensus main thread

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First, an overview of the market

The overall market is very strong today. Last night, the US stock market fell quite a bit, and many brothers are quite pessimistic. Some comments even mention 3800 points—are they serious? The impact on the main A-shares market is likely limited. First, before the holiday, a large downward candle was already given, which effectively released internal market uncertainties ahead of time. Second, regarding tariffs, we’re not afraid; last year, when yellow hair added many tariffs, we still entered a bull market afterward. The only concern now is a US-Iran conflict. Third, Hong Kong stocks surged yesterday. Many people say today will be a good start, with a lot of funds waiting to cash out before the holiday. The decline in US stocks has lowered expectations for a high opening. However, most of the hot topics during the holiday have already been realized today, and they were executed during the auction, so in a quantitative market, the rhythm is getting faster, and only through expectation gaps can trends emerge.

Regarding sentiment, the last day before the holiday saw a crossing of the market, with the first limit-up being a crossing point for Zhangyue. Today, during the auction, the computing power was solid, but application-related issues were more significant. Zhangyue’s early move was a deep water breakout, which, on one hand, indicates that sentiment is not quite right and cannot match today’s broad rise; on the other hand, the first and second crossing points were off, making it impossible to coordinate Zhangyue’s crossing and promotion. Sentiment is hard to break through high levels, so focus shifts to low-position explosive themes. Today’s gains can be described as broad-based price increases, but it’s hard to say if there’s a dominant main line for now. For example, Meibang’s strong moves with large orders, and the fermentation of chemical sectors, but top leaders are not participating, and some rebound plays may not be favored by funds.

On Meibang’s side, the auction kept reminding to watch the order book, and it remained steady without canceling orders, not selling at the open. The main rise was in pesticides, with a risk-avoidance high, and technology sectors naturally felt the impact. However, the tech stocks that surged before the holiday, like AI applications, computing power, and robotics, performed poorly today.

Regarding Jingshi, the turnover three pattern was high, but its high was suppressed by Yabo. Surprisingly, it suddenly announced it would stop doing it, while Falsheng below took the fiber optic position. Overall, the continuation of the limit-up streak remains cautious; the overall market is somewhat nonsensical.

Hanlan Cable, which is involved in cable manufacturing, advanced decisively without high volume, indicating that funds had no choice. The top positions are all single-line, with Jingshi’s turnover three pattern self-destructing—partly to maintain the limit-up ladder, and partly to guide the second wave of rotation.

For the first limit-up stocks, there were only two today, which is below expectations. Jingshi did not do it; Falsheng did. Be cautious of further self-destruction. Roman Shares seemed to ride on Fenghua High-Tech’s liquid cooling attribute but, given its high stock price, it’s hard to be optimistic—only trend-following. Yaxing’s anti-Japanese military response and military industry sectors had weak attempts at top positions, mostly saved by news during the day. Fengyu’s rise at 2:30 was driven by AI applications and robotics, possibly aiming to restore sector rotation expectations for tomorrow.

In today’s auction, Runze’s large order was in line with expectations. Originally, if Huasheng Tiancheng’s large order was a single-line, it would have been positive for computing power and applications fermentation. But Huasheng Tiancheng’s serious order cancellations led to no unexpected signals in AI. Fenghua High-Tech’s single-line was impressive, but the supercapacitor position was suppressed by Jingshi’s self-destruction, and the fermentation in liquid cooling and computing power was weak. Instead, CPO attributes were used for thematic articles. On Meibang’s side, the third pattern indicated a strong signal. Usually, with only turnover, it could only be Jingshi; but Jingshi opened too low, and its third pattern self-destructed. In this case, funds moved to Hanlan Cable, which is a second-tier rotation. The power attribute also aligns with risk-avoidance fermentation, making the overall atmosphere today quite risk-averse.

Looking at the auction signals, Bona and Hengdian both hit the limit down. Poor box office performance is understandable, but Dexin also hit the limit down, indicating a lack of confidence in Zhangyue. If Zhangyue were strong enough, these negative signals should have been contained. Runze’s largest order was smooth, with positive signals for resumption. Huasheng Tiancheng’s second-largest order was also notable, as retail investors were quite active during the day, and it’s a stock favored by retail and quantitative funds. Meibang’s order signals to watch for cancellations; this stock not only belongs to the third pattern but also signals risk-avoidance. Its strength today, combined with chemical sector fermentation, suggests that tomorrow’s risk-avoidance atmosphere will likely remain strong.

Fenghua High-Tech’s move involved MLCC price increases and supercapacitors. It was once thought that Jingshi Technology would benefit from the favorable policies, but given the high opening of Longfei’s fiber optics, Jingshi opened flat or even lower than Falsheng, which was a deliberate move to give way. Jiangwu Equipment, which had a high open after a pre-holiday sell-off, showed strength today but with low auction volume—initially a good setup, but needs to watch for volume recovery.

Shortly after the market opened, Zhangyue hit the limit down, likely dragged down by negative sector feedback and a rush to sell early. During auction, the highest limit was briefly touched, but the sector underperformed, with no support from others, leading to self-destruction. This not only reflects a lack of confidence in AI applications but also impacts the sentiment for continuous limit-ups. The market’s inability to sustain high levels indicates either continued snake-like rotation or low-volume accumulation with few breakthroughs. Overall, the market remains in rotation, with no sector gaining consistent market consensus. The focus remains on identifying sectors with strong group cohesion, waiting for a large-volume rally and sector-wide resonance before confirming the main trend.

Review of the limit-up streaks

First, four limit-ups, with three being strategic layouts, seem to be for risk mitigation:

1. Meibang Shares, Shaanxi, pesticides—mainly for risk hedging, with decent market cap, large orders during auction with no selling pressure, targeting tech sectors.
2. Yunnan Energy Control, Henan, computing power, IDC, energy storage, coal—another unexpected single-line, fermenting the power sector, with the highest market cap among computing infrastructure.

Second, three limit-ups, mainly to maintain the limit-up ladder, also as a way to buy into the big positions at the time:
Yunnan Energy Control’s single-line, Hanlan’s turnover pattern.
Hanlan Cable, Shandong, cables, wind power, hydrogen energy—good market cap, slightly larger size.

Third, two limit-ups, with very low promotion rates but still three stocks:

1. Falsheng, Jiangsu, fiber optics—auction quickly cut off Jingshi, possibly a turnover pattern.
2. Roman Shares, Shanghai, computing power, liquid cooling—active turnover, high stock price, with some anti-Japanese military news supporting the stock.
3. Yaxing Anchor, Jiangsu, anchor chains, military industry—mainly sustained by anti-Japanese news, aiming to turn weak into strong.
4. Fengyu’s rise at 2:30 driven by AI and robotics, with potential for sector rebound tomorrow.

Fourth, first limit-up stocks:

1. Fenghua High-Tech, Guangdong, liquid cooling, supercapacitors, lithium batteries, MLCC price increase—big auction order, strong tech hardware momentum, can also serve as a ladder or subgroup.
2. Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Hainan, oil and gas—risk-hedging related to US-Iran conflict, with rising oil prices.
3. China Merchants South Oil, Jiangsu, shipping—both COSCO and China Merchants Shipping surged, with strong turnover.
4. Shandong Molong, Shandong, oil and gas—risk-hedging, old leader.
5. Jiangwu Equipment, Jiangxi, tungsten-tantalum assets—high open after sell-off, with low auction volume but strong intra-day turnover.
6. GCL System Integration, Shanghai—big shareholder from Jiangsu, space photovoltaic—weak day, no volume breakout.
7. Jiangnan New Material, Jiangxi—PCB and liquid cooling, high stock price, fragmented market cap, influenced by Fenghua.
8. Baili Technology, Hunan—lithium batteries, solid-state batteries, robotics, coal-chemical—small market cap, some ST risk, beware.
9. Chengxing Shares, Jiangsu—phosphorus chemicals, green energy—market cap acceptable, old leader in chemical sector.
10. Hunan Silver, gold, small metals—precious metals for risk hedging, but futures showed a sharp drop.
11. Shikong Technology, Beijing—storage, decent market cap, just a tech price increase line.
12. Hanjian Heshan, Beijing—peek materials, infrastructure—news support, ongoing infrastructure attempts.
13. Huagong Technology, Hubei—CPO orders full, some fermentation during the holiday, but no single-line, a setback.
14. Tiantong Shares, Zhejiang—niobium acid crystals, commercial aerospace, photovoltaics.
15. Yonghe Zhikong, Zhejiang—solar business divestment, tumor radiotherapy, moderate market cap, small size, like Zhejiang Medicine.
16. Jinpu Titanium, Jilin—titanium dioxide, rubber transformation, small size, limited market cap.
17. Huamai Technology, Jiangsu—fiber optics, Falsheng’s method.
18. Zaisheng Technology, Chongqing—Spacex, fiberglass—likely riding on fiber optic price increase news, aerospace not strong, weak day, weak close.
19. Yangtze River Communication, Hubei—commercial aerospace, fiber optics—follows fiber optic sector, waiting for aerospace to start to position.
20. Changfei Fiber Optic, Hubei—fiber optics, leading fiber optic stock, closed at the limit but with reduced volume, still in a rebound.
21. Annada, Anhui—titanium dioxide, phosphorus chemicals, lithium batteries—small market cap, moderate size.
22. Yinglite, Ningxia—chlor-alkali chemicals, disinfectants—small market cap, decent size, disinfectants hint at toxicity.
23. Annier, Guangdong—textiles, three-child policy—small market cap, limited size.
24. Qinglong Pipe Industry, Ningxia—water conservancy—small market cap, moderate size.
25. Zhengzhong Design, Guangdong—AI, interior design, IP economy—moderate size, good market cap.
26. Shangaohuaneng, Shandong—previous high-standard guidance, hints at Hanlan’s potential.

Overall, chemical sectors fermented well today; AI hardware price increase line saw many limit-ups in the afternoon; oil and gas sectors were generally weak, driven by news; nonferrous metals saw sporadic fermentation. After the holiday, although AI hardware’s price increase line is technically a tech sector, institutional trading makes it hard to sustain limit-ups. Oil, metals, and chemical sectors mainly rely on news and risk-avoidance. Today, the market opened with high volume, then gradually shrank throughout the day. The main takeaway is that late-stage funds are not very eager to enter, and rotation remains dominant. The focus on price increase lines should be on core recognition within each sector.

Today’s trading review
Pre-holiday, I hedged with Jiangwu Equipment, which opened high during auction but with very low volume, so I used it defensively, and it immediately hit the limit-up.

Jingshi Technology, turnover pattern three, unless it opens with a strong attack, I suggest following defensive discipline: if it drops below the open, it should be sold.

588990 continues its pattern.

Robortech’s 10-day line remains a support.

Guanghuan Xinwang opened below the 5-day line and did not immediately recover it, so no action was taken.

ST Chengchang hit the limit-up; I paid attention to Fenghua High-Tech, which has a lower position, using a few points of new lows to re-enter.