#马年开工第一帖 Is speculation dead? By 2026, the "100x myth" in cryptocurrency is coming to an end. Say goodbye to the illusion of high leverage profits and embrace the new normal of low volatility.

01 Reality: The End of the Myth
The era of "100x returns" is becoming history. After Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,000 in October 2025, the market experienced a four-month correction, currently hovering around $64,000, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 50%.

High leverage profits are no longer the main theme. Galaxy founder Novogratz bluntly stated that retail investors entered the market for 30x or even 10x returns, but now market returns are aligning with traditional assets.

02 The Truth: Institutional "Harvesting" and Retail "FOMO"
The market structure has fundamentally changed, with pricing power shifting from retail investors to institutions.

Institutional "scythe": US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for several months. Institutional funds are harvesting high profits through arbitrage between buying spot and selling futures. While retail investors celebrate short-term gains, institutions are already locking in risk-free profits using price differentials.

Retail "Trap": Retail investors' FOMO (fear of missing out) and high leverage are major sources of market volatility. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, liquidations of high-leverage longs reached $460 million, and market sentiment has dropped to the "extreme fear" zone.

03 Trends: Decreasing Volatility and Market "Maturation"
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a process of "de-retailization" and "industrialization."

Volatility narrowing: Bitcoin's weekly annualized volatility has significantly contracted compared to previous cycles, and in some periods, it may even be lower than that of tech stocks like Nvidia. This suggests that investors expecting "overnight riches" may be disappointed.

Narrative shift: From "speculative bubble" to "value revaluation." The market is no longer solely relying on halving narratives but is paying more attention to macro liquidity (M2 supply) and sovereign-level asset allocation needs.

04 Insights: How to Adapt to the "Post-100x Era"?
In the face of the new normal, investors need to adjust their strategies:

Reduce leverage: The 2026 market is not suitable for high-leverage gambling. Longevity is more important than quick gains. Disabling high leverage and strictly controlling positions are the first rules for survival.

Value allocation: View Bitcoin as an "inflation-resistant digital commodity" or a "liquidity-sensitive asset," and make long-term allocations rather than short-term speculation.

By 2026, the crypto market will no longer be a wild frontier but a regulated battlefield dominated by institutions. The era of speculation is over, and value return marks a new beginning.