Bitcoin on-chain indicators fall below critical threshold, a situation only seen during the 2018 and 2022 crypto winter

According to analysis data provided by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the 90-day simple moving average of Bitcoin’s “Realized Profit and Loss Ratio” has officially fallen below the key threshold of 1.

This indicator is the ratio of the total value of realized profits to realized losses on the chain. Falling below 1 means that the volume of loss-making transactions in the current network has exceeded that of profit-making transactions, indicating a market fully transitioned into a loss-dominated selling mode.

Analysts point out that this “excess loss realization mechanism” typically only appears during deep bear markets, such as the crypto winters of 2018 and 2022.

This reading suggests that the bullish trend that began in late January (around 1.32) and early February (around 1.5) has undergone a substantial reversal, with current market selling pressure shifting from profit-taking to loss-escape.

Historically, once this indicator drops below 1, it often takes six months or longer to recover, and true recovery usually involves a “constructive return of market liquidity.”

Analysis indicates that the source of this round of selling pressure can be traced back to December 2025. Earlier data from Glassnode shows that the 7-day average realized profit plummeted from over $1 billion in Q4 of last year to just $183.8 million in December. This depletion of profit-making capacity has also caused the market to lose buying support.

However, some analysts believe that although on-chain data paints an unsettling picture of a bear market, a longer-term perspective reveals that Bitcoin’s ongoing weakness is more a product of macroeconomic pressure rather than a collapse in internal consensus.

As the market consensus generally agrees, this decline is mainly attributed to the risk asset retreat triggered by Trump’s tariff policies. This external liquidity shock-driven adjustment fundamentally differs from a structural collapse of Bitcoin’s own fundamentals.

This may mean that the current “darkest hour” is merely a rough patch in the cycle’s evolution. Once macroeconomic gloom clears, it will be the key moment to test Bitcoin’s intrinsic value.

#链上数据 #Realized Losses