2.25 Yuanbao Morning Market: Quantitative Analysis, the More You Calculate, the More Precise

Nobody is talking about computing power anymore, right? Everyone’s gone silent, right? The teachers who hyped it up before the holiday are probably wavering now, right? [Taogu Ba]

Bro, I’m not wavering because I’ve looked at the full-year view of 2026. Whether you believe it or not, come this morning trading, I’m here.

Big picture: Yesterday, after the index opened high, it was supported by resource stocks like oil, rebounding from the bottom. But the tech sector for long positions was a mixed bag—some areas soared, others plummeted. Only certain overseas chains (or just second-tier tech materials) are strong. Today, trading volume is crucial. If there’s no increase in volume, the market’s turning point in the second half of the week might be delayed. But even without volume, a big drop isn’t likely; it will probably just move sideways or fluctuate.

On the theme side, second-tier tech materials are likely to hit a temporary top this week. I said top, I mean top—watch whether the hype spreads downstream, like equipment, base stations, etc. (upstream hype leads to downstream hype).

As for computing power (token exports), short-term volatility caused by quant strategies—sharp rises and falls—aims to wipe out the subjective bullish funds (the previous hidden positions). But this is a long-term logic, likely to persist throughout 2026. I reviewed many institutional meeting minutes the day before yesterday. Since early yesterday morning, some teachers have started popularizing this, doing a good job. Quant strategies will gradually catch these moves, like the CEO mentioned in comments—like the Ascend Chain we discussed in meetings.

I’m not looking at resource sectors anymore; I think they won’t become the main theme, so I’m not watching them. If you think you’re smart enough to catch the trend, follow the quant strategies. Now, Tiantian Ladder still can’t break new highs, which indicates a very serious issue: the previous emotional trading approach isn’t working anymore, and making money is harder.

Currently, the market still relies on quant strategies—wherever they point, that’s where the explosion happens. If you chase, you get squeezed the next day. For example, the last day before the holiday, a violent recovery in movies, was collectively suppressed yesterday; resource stocks that were hammered for a week before the holiday, recovered strongly yesterday.

As quant scale expands further this year, such situations will become more frequent. The only thing I can do is focus on logically justified directions that experience short-term drops, wait for quant to catch on, wait for the wind. This is the biggest change in the pattern. Statistically, a roughly 30% drop in the recognition of consecutive board runs within a sector is a signal.

In summary, if today’s big move in computing power can be pulled up from the deep water to lead the sector back, it confirms that this pattern is correct. Let’s see today.

Overall, there’s no main theme right now; today remains focused on trading T+0.

Eight-word motto: Focus on T+0 trading, be patient!

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That’s all. The eight-word motto: Focus on T+0 trading, be patient.