Bitcoin Future 3–7 Day Trend Analysis (Probability Ranking Version)

Most Likely (55–60%): High-level consolidation + slight rebound testing 73k–74k
Currently holding steady above the key support at 68,500–69,000 (multiple technical lines + historical demand zones), indicators are mixed but MACD/PSAR/Fisher etc. have turned bullish.
If ETF continues to see slight net inflows + the stock market stabilizes, a "short squeeze" rebound may occur, targeting 73,687–74,000 (this resistance is very strong and requires high volume breakout to confirm bullish takeover).
If it pulls back but does not break below 68,000, it will continue to fluctuate within the range.

Next Likely (25–30%): Fake breakout followed by a pullback, retesting 62k–65k
If resistance at 73k–74k causes a pullback, and ETF experiences another large single-day outflow (>300 million), the probability of breaking below 68k increases after liquidity sweeps. 60k–62k is an important psychological + technical bottom in this cycle; a breakdown would accelerate panic, but a quick rebound is likely (similar to February 6).

Less Likely (10–15%): Rapid surge breaking through 78k
Requires continuous large ETF inflows + positive catalysts (implementation of Trump-related crypto policies, dovish signals, etc.). Currently, the structure remains bearish, making this unlikely in the short term.